Israel has turned the tables on Hezbollah, now what comes next? - analysis
After many months where it seemed Israel was only responding proportionately to Hezbollah’s attacks, it now appears that Israel is turning the tables.
The Israel Defense Forces are turning the tables on Hezbollah after 11 months of attacks by the Iranian-backed terrorist group. The IDF eliminated Ibrahim Aqil on Friday, only two days after Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded and three days after exploding pagers injured thousands of Hezbollah members.
After many months when it seemed Israel was only responding proportionately to Hezbollah’s attacks, it now appears that Israel is turning the tables. It is unclear whether this will turn the tide of the war.
"I can now confirm that Ibrahim Aqil was eliminated together with other senior terrorists in Hezbollah’s Radwan Forces,” an IDF spokesperson said.
Who is Ibrahim Aqil?
Aqil has been a terrorist for decades, and he was on the US wanted list for his role in killing Americans during bombings in the 1980s.
The IDF accused him of planning a major attack on Israel, similar to the October 7 attack that Hamas carried out. Israel is now demonstrating that its claims of being able to reach anyone who threatens Israelis are true.
Too big to fail?
Hezbollah is now suffering setback after setback. It is fearful and in chaos. It is also embarrassed. Its aging leadership, such as Hassan Nasrallah and Naim Qassem, must wonder if they still have enough cards to play. They have a large arsenal of rockets and missiles and have built many new drones, but are they ready for a major war? Is Hezbollah “too big to fail?”Hezbollah will be consulting with Iran about its next moves. Since October 7, the terror group has been targeting northern Israel in its attacks, which it initiated the following day. Israel evacuated its northern communities, and Hezbollah has mostly attacked those communities, usually claiming to target Israeli military sites.In general, the Hezbollah attacks, of which there have been more than 8,500, have caused damage and killed people, but they have not been a game-changer in terms of the war. Iran encouraged Hezbollah to launch an attack in order to alleviate pressure on Hamas and initiate a multi-front conflict with Israel. It has settled into a pattern of attrition. It sees this as an equation from which it can benefit. Israel has now turned the tables and upset the equation, driving through and destroying its parameters. In July, Hezbollah lost Fuad Shukr, a key commander, after it killed 12 people in Majdal Shams. It has lost dozens of its commanders in southern Lebanon.Let’s review this Hezbollah posture. Hezbollah’s Nasser unit controls the area from Bint Jbeil to the east, basically up to Mount Hermon. Taleb Sami Abdallah was the commander of the Nasser division. He was killed in June.Muhammad Neamah Nasser was the commander of Hezbollah’s western Aziz division, which controls the area from Bint Jbeil to the coast. He was killed in March. The Hezbollah Aziz division controls an area that faces off against the IDF’s 300th Territorial Brigade, which commands the western sector of the northern Galilee under the IDF’s 91st Division.In essence, the key Hezbollah commanders controlling the border threats to Israel have been eliminated.Additionally, Radwan Force leader Wissam Tawil was killed in January 2024. Israel has thus eliminated around 50% of the Hezbollah commanders in southern Lebanon.However, the slow drumbeat of eliminating Hezbollah commanders took place over time. In 11 months, Hezbollah lost around 450 fighters. The group then suffered unprecedented losses on September 17, with around two dozen of its members killed due to the pager explosions and the September 18 walkie-talkie explosions. This brings the total to more than 470 Hezbollah members killed.Hezbollah is now off balance. It prided itself on being an elite organization that functioned well, like a state with an army. Now it finds itself in a state of chaos. As Israel stirs the pot, Hezbollah is making mistakes. It wants to lash out.The September 20 meeting with Aqil and Radwan force commanders likely aimed to strategize Hezbollah’s next move, but the elimination of Aqil has now occurred. This is a reminder of the days when Israel eliminated Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in March 2004 and then killed Hamas leader Abdel Aziz Rantisi the next month. This is how terror organizations can suffer setbacks.So, the question is whether Israel will exploit this turning of the tables. So far, Iran has kept Hezbollah and its other proxies in the driver’s seat in terms of dictating the tempo of operations. Israel was reacting but focusing on Gaza and the West Bank. Israel may now be ready for the northern front. The question is what Iran and Hezbollah will do.
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