Hezbollah wants to maintain the illusion of a 'military vs military' war - analysis

On September 25, Hezbollah sought to target an area near Tel Aviv with a ballistic missile. Later, the group targeted an area near Zichron Ya’acov. These represent the most extensive attacks Hezbollah has carried out since October 8.

The strikes on September 25 were apparently in response to Israel’s increased attacks on the terror group, which began over the past week and culminated in strikes on 1,600 targets on September 23.

This is not the first time Hezbollah sought to target areas close to Tel Aviv. On August 25, the group claimed it targeted an area near Tel Aviv. Hassan Nasrallah claimed Hezbollah targeted the IDF’s 8200 unit in Glilot.

However, during those attacks, Hezbollah was frustrated by an IDF preemptive strike that destroyed many Hezbollah launchers and prevented a larger attack. Instead, Hezbollah was only able to launch several hundred rockets.

Hezbollah’s most recent attacks are an attempt to expand the “equation.” Since October 8, the Iranian-backed terrorist group has sought to create an equation in which it attacks certain areas of Israel and Israel responds proportionately with attacks of the same type and range inside Lebanon.

Until now, Hezbollah mainly targeted border areas. When Israel struck the Bekaa Valley, the terror group would respond, targeting IDF sites in the Galilee, launching rockets at Mount Meron or areas near the Golani junction.

Ongoing military engagement following Israeli strikes

When the IDF struck Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, in Beirut in July, Hezbollah responded with the August 25 attack.

Now the military has eliminated numerous Hezbollah commanders and carried out more strikes in Beirut, and Hezbollah has responded by claiming to target the Ramat David airbase in the Jezreel Valley.

Hezbollah is upping its claims and its targets. It appears proud of using a single ballistic missile in the September 25 attack.

Supposedly, Hezbollah had an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, but some, including medium and long-range missiles, have been destroyed by Israel’s airstrikes. It has also lost the ability to launch some of its remaining rockets. Hezbollah still has precision guided munitions and large numbers of drones.

Hezbollah appears unready to unleash a large barrage against central Israel. It prefers small attacks using one missile, like the one aimed at Tel Aviv, or barrages of five or ten rockets targeting areas east of Haifa.

Hezbollah continues to maintain the image of targeting IDF sites, thereby engaging in a “military vs military” conflict. It wants to show it can go toe-to-toe with the IDF. This is an illusion but Hezbollah wants to maintain the illusion.

For now, it has sought to increase the equation of launching deeper attacks into Israel as a new normal to confront Israel’s increased attacks in Lebanon.