Lebanon's leadership vacuum threatens to prolong Israel-Hezbollah war - analysis

The IDF began limited ground operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah to end the threat that the terror group poses to northern Israel.

As the IDF moves into Lebanon, it may achieve tactical military successes. However, the larger question about how the war progresses will need to be answered in Jerusalem, Beirut, and other cities. One of the major challenges will be the fact that Hezbollah is currently leaderless and the presidency of Lebanon is vacant.

Hezbollah has exercised an increasing stranglehold on Lebanese politics over the last decade and a half. Although it only has a handful of seats in parliament, the group has deep control over Lebanon.

Part of this is due to the fact that Hezbollah has stockpiled so many weapons that it is stronger than the Lebanese Army. Additionally, Hezbollah has close ties to Syria and Iran. It should be recalled that the Syrian regime occupied Lebanon from 1976 to 2005. Therefore, Hezbollah’s international connections also make it potentially stronger than the state of Lebanon.

The absence of a president of Lebanon is due, in part, to Hezbollah’s increasing control of the country. Lebanese politics are divided along sectarian lines, with reserved seats in political office for various groups. The Christians hold the presidency, the Prime Minister is a Sunni, and the Speaker of Parliament is a Shi’ite.

The current speaker is Nabih Berri, who was born in 1938. The aging Shi’ite politician is the head of the Amal Movement, which has amicable ties to Hezbollah. The Prime Minister of Lebanon is Najib Mikati, a wealthy businessman who became a politician in the late 1990s. He is not particularly interesting or known for taking any bold steps.

Lebanon 2006 vs. Lebanon 2024

It is worth contrasting the Lebanon of 2024 with the Lebanon of 2006, the last time there was a ground war between Israel and Hezbollah. At the time, Hezbollah was a much smaller movement with about 10,000 fighters and around 13,000 rockets. Today it has three times as many estimated fighters and 10 times as many rockets.

Israel has downgraded this arsenal, and more than 500 Hezbollah members have been killed in 11 months of fighting. In fact, Hezbollah has lost more fighters already, at the beginning of the ground operation, than it did in the entire Second Lebanon War (2006). Hezbollah’s leadership and commanders have also been eviscerated by Israel.

In 2006, Hezbollah was led by Hassan Nasrallah. Now Nasrallah is dead. In 2006, Lebanon’s government was led by President Émile Lahoud and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. These men were much more capable on the global stage in presenting Lebanon’s case and at working towards a ceasefire.

Today Lebanon has a leadership vacuum. Hezbollah also has a leadership vacuum. However, Hezbollah today is tied in much more deeply with Iran’s “axis” in the region. This includes Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq.

Given this constellation of a more powerful and connected Hezbollah and a much weaker Lebanese state, it is unclear how the 2024 war will play out. One challenge may be to get any kind of agreement at all out of this war.

Is an agreement worth it?

One lesson of 2006 is that any agreement is likely not worth anything anyway. UN Resolution 1701 was supposed to keep Hezbollah away from the border. Previous UN resolutions, such as 1559, were supposed to disarm the group. Hezbollah didn’t disarm, and even after the ceasefire that ended the 2006 war, Hezbollah didn’t leave the border. This illustrates how Hezbollah will not likely comply with any agreement. 

Without a bold leader willing to change course for the group, it also can’t come to an agreement. Lebanon is so weak as a state, and its leadership class is so unwilling to confront Hezbollah, it is unlikely they will push for a deal either.

For instance, Saad Hariri and others who might have once opposed Hezbollah appear unwilling to critique it now. This is despite the fact that Hezbollah murdered Saad Hariri’s father, former prime minister Rafic Hariri, back in 2005. Today the wings of the politicians in Lebanon, many of them related to political clans and families, have been clipped.

Even those who might seize this opportunity to confront Hezbollah, such as Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, don’t seem to be leaping at the opportunity. Other leaders in Lebanon are aging, such as Michel Aoun, who is 91 years old and Walid Jumblatt, who is 75 years old.

Amine Gemayel, former president of Lebanon, and his well-known political family likely fear any confrontation with Hezbollah, which could lead to more political assassinations. Amine’s brother was assassinated in the 1980s, and his father Pierre was also a target of an assassination. Amine’s son, Pierre Amine Gemayel, was assassinated in 2006.