Netanyahu strengthens Israel's security amid Iran, Hezbollah threats after Oct 7 stigma - analysis

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, confrontation with Iran and its proxies offers the chance of political redemption at home, even at the risk of a regional war, a year after the Oct 7 attack by Hamas.

Many Israelis, lacking trust due to the major security failures related to the deadly attack by the terrorist group Hamas., have regained confidence in their military and intelligence apparatus after a series of stunning blows against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon in recent weeks.

The death of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah and a top ally of Hamas, in a Sept. 27 Israeli strike in Beirut was greeted with elation in a country still grappling with trauma from Oct. 7 and a year of war in Gaza.

Even when a barrage of Iranian missiles sent Israelis piling into bomb shelters last week, Israel's success in intercepting the projectiles in coordination with Western allies helped to shore up the country's sense of resilience.

The death of at least nine Israeli soldiers in Lebanon since Israel announced the start of its ground operation on Oct 1 has provided a sobering reminder of the potential dangers ahead.

But Netanyahu, who called Nasrallah's death a "turning point," has led a chorus of statements by Israeli officials in recent days that sought to prepare the population for more war.

"Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay for it," he said at the outset of a political-security meeting after the missile attacks.

According to a survey from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, around 80% of Israelis feel the Lebanon campaign has met or exceeded expectations. However, the same study found disappointment with the campaign in Gaza, with 70% supporting a ceasefire to bring Israeli hostages home.

Political Survivor

A former member of an elite special forces unit that carried out some of Israel's most daring hostage rescues in the 1970s, Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics for decades, becoming the country's longest-serving prime minister when he won an unprecedented sixth term in 2022.

His alliance with right national religious parties was key to his victory. Last year, he faced some of the biggest protests in Israel's history over a package of measures designed to curb the powers of the Supreme Court, which drew accusations that he was undermining the foundations of the country's democracy. 

Since the start of the war, the protests over judicial changes have given way to regular demonstrations demanding his government do more to bring back the hostages kidnapped by Hamas on Oct. 7, with some protesters suggesting Netanyahu has deliberately kept the war going for his own political ends.

Throughout the war, Netanyahu has said that only sustained military pressure on Hamas will get the hostages back, and he has vowed to continue the war until Hamas is destroyed as a military and governing force in Gaza.

Outside Israel, he has been the target of protestors outraged by the Israeli military that has fought against Hamas in Gaza. Foreign governments, including close ally the United States, have been critical of the Gaza campaign and alarmed by the spread of conflict to Lebanon.

The International Criminal Court is considering a prosecution request for an arrest warrant against him over alleged war crimes in Gaza; in which Netanyahu himself described the move by the ICC prosecutor as "absurd" and said it was directed against the whole of Israel and antisemitic.

Mortal Enemy 

Before Israel began its campaign against Hezbollah last month, Netanyahu had already seen his domestic political fortunes recover somewhat during a year of a war against the terrorist group Hamas.

Recent opinion polls show his Likud party is once again the strongest party in Israel, even if he might still struggle to form a ruling coalition if an election were held now.

However, he may not need to, having brought in former ally-turned-rival Gideon Saar last week into his often fractious government, increasing his majority to a comfortable 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

That may give him some insurance against coalition partners like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, two hardliners from the settler movement who have been consistently unwilling to toe the government line.

Having survived one of the worst terrorist attacks in Israeli history, he now may even serve out a full term with elections not due until 2026.