Window for Israel-Saudi deal may close in 2024, Lindsey Graham warns

The opportunity to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia could end in early 2024, US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters in Jerusalem on Monday, underscoring that Riyadh was open to such a move.

“For Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, a Jewish state, as a legitimate entity in the Middle East is the ultimate game changer,” he said.

Saudi Arabia “is ready to move forward with Israel” but would do so only if it can upgrade its ties with Washington including finalizing a defense and free trade agreement, Graham explained following his trip to Riyadh last week.

“I would say that that this opportunity is not unlimited and that if we do not do it in 2023 or early 2024 the window may close,” he said.

How could Israeli-Saudi normalization happen?

The Biden administration, Graham explained, sent him to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) and to assess the extent to which the Kingdom had undergone a reform process and would therefore be better suited to partner to with the United States.

“I left Saudi Arabia believing that a deal that between the US and Saudi Arabia is possible,” Graham said, explaining that this is the building block for Israel-Saudi ties.

“The recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia is only going to happen when MBS believes he has a reliable partner in the US, that we are going to be there through thick and thin,” Graham said.

It was for this reason, while in Saudi Arabia, Graham said he emphasized the bi-partisan support for strong ties with the Kingdom.

The veteran South Carolina politician spoke about the issue during his meeting in Jerusalem on Monday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Eli Cohen for whom such a deal is a major foreign policy goal. He also discussed it with opposition leader and Yesh Atid Party head MK Yair Lapid as well as with National Unity Party head MK Benny Gantz.

Graham told Netanyahu, “to the extent as a Republican I can help make that [a Saudi deal] happen, I will do it.” He added, “I believe the Republican Party would be glad to work with President Biden to change the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia” which would lead to a normalization agreement.

During his conversation with reporters, Graham said, “I let every Israeli politician know that there is bi-partisanship at home to try and close the deal with Saudi Arabia and the goal is to do it this year and so to the extend that the Israeli political system can focus on this the better.”

He explained that Democrats in Congress would be more likely to support a Saudi defense deal reached under Biden and that coupled with enough Republican backing, such an agreement could pass.

Once 2024 arrives, American political attention will be focused on the presidential race, he explained and success would be less likely.

“We get into presidential politics back home” in 2024, so “the sooner we can change the relationship with Saudi Arabia the better.” Therefore, “2023 is a year of great opportunity and great challenge,” he said.

Graham indicated that he did not believe Israel needed to resolve its conflict with the Palestinians or even to enter negotiations with the Palestinian Authority to arrive at a Saudi deal.

Such a normalization agreement would be an extension of the Abraham Accords, Graham said, referencing the US-brokered deal in 2020 under which Israel secured understandings to normalize ties with four Arab states: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

“I think the Abraham Accords is a good example where the region is not going to give the Palestinians a veto,” he said.

When it came to the issue of judicial reform, he said, he did not believe that a Saudi deal was dependent on the issue. Nor, he said, was this trip about advising Netanyahu about how to handle such an overhaul.

“I came here to tell [Netanyahu] I see an opportunity with Saudi Arabia I haven’t seen since I have been coming to the Middle East. MBS is taking the country in a better direction I think that what is happening in Saudi Arabia needs to be built on and I am willing to work with Biden to get it done,” Graham said.

He underscored that he has long been a supporter of Netanyahu and remains one.

“I have known Bibi … for 20-plus years. I like him. I am an extremely close friend. He mentioned me in his book. He is one of the strongest leaders in the history of Israel, he has done things that other people really could not do, in the region he is seen as a strong reliable partner,” Graham said.

In his meeting with Graham, Netanyahu said, “We want normalization and peace with Saudi Arabia, we view that as perhaps the giant leap forward toward ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. This agreement could have monumental consequences, historic consequences, both for Israel, for Saudi Arabia, for the region, for the world.

“We welcome the American participation by President Biden and by both sides of the aisle in Congress,” Netanyahu said.