Netanyahu's Likud loses support in latest Israeli election poll

A new poll by Maariv puts Benny Gantz’s National Unity at the top spot with 30 seats, if a hypothetical election were held today. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party falls shortly behind with 27 seats. Put all together, the current coalition stands at 53 seats while the opposition would win 67 seats.

The polling is consistent with recent results that show the coalition lagging behind voters, despite currently maintaining power.

The most recent polling addressed a lingering question that arose after a New York Times column by Thomas Friedman suggested the Biden administration might condition peace with Saudi Arabia on a unity government being formed.

This would include Netanyahu removing Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit Party, both of which are unfavorable to Washington, from the coalition – and replacing them with Gantz and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid.

This has been a topic of discussion throughout the week, with the prime minister and cabinet members declining to give comment on the possibility.

When it comes to the question of the prime minister abandoning his current coalition and building one with Gantz and Lapid, 42% support the idea while 45% oppose it. Interestingly, 55% of Likud voters are in favor of this, and 62% of National Unity voters support the idea. A plurality of Yesh Atid voters are against the idea, with 61% saying they are not in favor.

In Netanyahu's interest to maintain coalition

Recent polling from Pew suggests that this would not be in the prime minister’s best interest, as he currently is polling around 92% favorably among religious voters, many of whom support Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power).

It would also likely put the hypothetical new governing coalition in immediate fear of collapse. Additionally, Lapid has openly come out against such a plan. As a result, most pundits have already ruled out the possibility that this would happen.

Maariv’s polling also puts a hole in the governing coalition’s oft-repeated claim that they have a clear mandate to act unilaterally when it comes to issues such as judicial reform, while they are currently polling as the minority if an election were held today.