A massive, unprovoked attack on Israel - analysis

Hamas launched a massive surprise attack on Israel, shortly after 6 a.m. Saturday. Sirens wailed throughout southern Israel and rocket fire could be seen as far away as Jerusalem.

An attack on this scale by Hamas and other terrorists in Gaza, combining rocket attacks and armed infiltrators, has not been seen since the Islamic organization seized exclusive power in the Strip in 2007.

The IDF said that the “Hamas terrorist organization has begun a massive shooting of rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory, and terrorists infiltrated into Israeli territory in a number of different locations.”

The IDF instructed that “civilians in the southern and central areas are required to stay next to shelters, and in the area surrounding the Gaza Strip, inside shelters.”

 “The Hamas terrorist organization is the sovereign in the Gaza Strip and is responsible for this attack. It will face the consequences and responsibility for these events,”  a spokesperson said. The Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant approved the call-up of reserve soldiers in accordance with the IDF’s requirements.

Chief of the General staff  Lt.-Gen. Herzl Halevi has conducted a situational assessment. Israel, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is in a state of war and called a meeting of his security cabinet.

Israel is in a state of war

How did we get here? In the past conflicts with Gaza often went through stages, with a slow build up of tensions. Back in 2008 before “Operation Cast Lead” rocket fire from Gaza increased.

In many operations Israel dictated the tempo of the conflict, launching strikes in Gaza in 2012 or 2019, with Operations “Pillar of Cloud” and “Black Belt.” In 2014 the conflict also began with tensions in the West Bank after the kidnapping and murder of three Israelis. The 10-day conflict in 2021 also began with tensions in Jerusalem. The attacks this morning were unprecedented in their size and their extent, but not in their excuse, alleged violations by Israelis of the sanctity of Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount or Haram al-Sharif.

Hamas has tried infiltrations before, but the Gaza border fence and security have generally prevented those attempts.

Hamas has also tried to use riots as cover for threats. However, even though Hamas instigated some riots this past month, there was no evidence that this was a slow drumbeat towards a wider war. Overall, the Iranian-backed proxies such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah have been relatively quiet in recent days. This was a lull before the storm.  

Now the storm has broken. While it remains to be seen how this attack will continue to unfold and what Israel’s overall response will be, it is clear that Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza have sought to dictate the tempo of the conflict, to wrest that decision from Israel.

In a sense this could be seen as an attempt by the terrorists to replay the Yom Kippur War, which included a surprise attack on Israel 50 years ago this week and also on a Sabbath day and a religious holiday.

But, unlike the two-front attack by Egypt and Syria in 1973 the terrorists do not have warplanes or a conventional force, and Israel is in a much stronger position today. However, Iran backs the terrorists in Gaza and it is possible that the attack could be a curtain raiser for other moves by Iran and its network of terrorist proxies in the region.

The attempt by Hamas to fire rockets at Jerusalem also makes this aggression unique. While Hamas and other terrorists in Gaza have targeted Jerusalem in the past, this level of fire is a new type of tactic.

In the 2021 war the conflict began when Hamas fired a salvo of rockets toward Jerusalem. However, in general, the terrorist groups have not targeted Jerusalem during most rounds of fighting and they have preferred instead to fire toward Tel Aviv or areas south of Tel Aviv such as Rishon Lezion or Ashkelon. This shift towards Jerusalem clearly represents a decision by the terrorist leaders, backed by Iran, to target the city.  

Another tactic that the terror groups have borrowed from the 2021 war is to launch large salvos of rockets. Over the years the military infrastructure in Gaza has increased to the point that groups have been able to fire more than 100 rockets in salvos over a very short period of time.  

The Iranian effort to confront Israel in recent years has also shifted. It has sought to “unify” various fronts against Israel, by increasing support for Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and also creating tensions in Lebanon and Syria.  

The attack on Israel conjures up memories of other infiltration attempts, such as the effort Hamas put into building tunnels before 2014; and the attack that resulted in the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit in June 2006. The abduction of Shalit from a military post took place on the eve of a similar Hezbollah attack from Lebanon.

In 2014 Hamas also attempted a seaborne commando raid near Kibbutz Zikim, east of Gaza. However, the Hamas attack on Saturday was far more  intense. Despite many conflicts with Israel over the years and Israel’s increased investment in security on the border using new technology, Hamas was able to launch a massive surprise attack, once again, on a country celebrating one of its most significant religious festivals.