Terror in Jerusalem shows spillover from Gaza threat - analysis

The attack on Thursday morning in Jerusalem is a reminder of the serious threat of illegal weapons in east Jerusalem and the West Bank. There are small arms and rifles in the hands of terrorists.

The attack on Thursday morning took place at the same bus stop at the entrance to the city as the November 2022 bombing attack.

Video from the attack shows terrorists exiting a car and shooting people, before they were quickly neutralized. The quick response of a soldier who was returning to his unit, and also an armed civilian and others, saved lives. The bodies of the terrorists could be seen in photos and video. One showed an M-16 style rifle next to one of the men; the video appears to show the other terrorists using a pistol.

Channel 14 reported that the terrorists were brothers from Sur Baher in east Jerusalem. More details will be discovered about them, such as the extent of their reported links to Hamas. Arabic media, including Maan News, named the perpetrators as Murad Namr and said he had served time in prison. The reports also said his brother, Ibrahim, was the other perpetrator.

Sur Baher is near the Jewish Jerusalem neighborhoods of Ramat Rachel, east Talpiot and Armon HaNatziv. It is also near other east Jerusalem areas such as Jebel Mukaber.

Sur Baher often in the news in connection to extremism and threats

Sur Baher in east Jerusalem has often been in the news in connection to extremism and threats. For instance, in mid-October, four men aged 18-28 were detained for making threats to kill Jews in the wake of the October 7 attack. In August, an arrest was made in the same area over three shooting incidents that took place locally.

In July, nine residents of the neighborhood were arrested for assaulting an Orthodox Jewish man at a hospital, but only four of the perpetrators were charged. The other incident, involving an allegation of being involved in gun violence, reportedly ended with the suspect being released.

In 2016 a terror cell was uncovered operating in Sur Baher. Over the years there have been attempts to crack down on the lawlessness and threats from these neighborhoods. There is a Catch-22 in a sense here because the neighborhoods are generally not integrated well into the city and they are in many ways abandoned to a kind of lawlessness that would never be permitted in west Jerusalem.

On the other hand, this breeds extremism and leads to crackdowns but not a long-term attempt to create peace, stability, and security. Illegal gun violence, for instance, is common in east Jerusalem, whereas in west Jerusalem people have to apply for gun permits and obey the law.

Ceasefire in Gaza, but threats from West Bank, Jerusalem will continue

The attack on Thursday reveals that while the pause in fighting may hold in Gaza, threats from the West Bank and Jerusalem, as well as other fronts, will continue. Israel has worked hard since October 7 to prevent the attack by Hamas from spreading to the West Bank. Thousands have been detained and there are often raids there. For instance, this week two Islamic Jihad members were eliminated in Jenin.

East Jerusalem has always been a challenge from the point of view of law enforcement and counter-terrorism. There have generally not been a large number of attacks from these neighborhoods, but there are numerous threats and every year there are incidents.

The challenge in east Jerusalem is that it is part of the capital, and as such there is no easy security solution to the challenge. That means there is no security fence or other obstacle to some of these attacks. On the other hand, the police have proven that many of these threats can be kept to a minimum by security forces.

Nevertheless, the threat from illegal weapons in east Jerusalem and the West Bank is clear, both there and extending into Israel proper. The last year has been one of the most violent in terms of shootings in Israeli society. Most of these shootings happened among criminal gangs and many took place in the Arab sector.

This phenomenon is a serious challenge, but the attack on October 7 has overshadowed most of this. Nevertheless, on Thursday there were violent incidents in Lod and Umm al-Fahm. The attack in Jerusalem illustrates that the terror threat is always present and that the extremists behind it must be kept in check.

The release of terrorists and detainees from east Jerusalem or neighboring areas of the West Bank as part of the deal with Hamas can also have unintended although not unexpected consequences – and could inspire more threats.