Sa'ar-Gantz party split – here are the winners and losers

The content of New Hope Chairman MK Gideon Sa’ar’s announcement on Tuesday evening that his party will break away from MK Benny Gantz’s party, National Unity, did not come as a surprise, but the timing was somewhat unexpected.

Most political analysts, and even members of National Unity itself, believed that it was only a matter of time before this would occur, as the ongoing war against Hamas exacerbated the differences between the two leaders on issues of national security and diplomacy. Sa’ar, on his part, opposes to the notion of there being a Palestinian state and wants to increase the scope of Israel’s operations in Gaza, whereas Gantz has not ruled out a two-state solution and is not as keen to increase the scope of the war.

The following provides for some initial thoughts on the impact of Sa’ar’s decision:

1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a new lifeline, at least in the short term. Sa’ar opposes going to an election during wartime, and even if far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir quits the government and removes his six seats from the coalition, Netanyahu would still have a 62-MK majority without Gantz. This means that if Gantz decided to leave the National Unity Party, the government could continue to survive.

2. Having said that, Sa’ar’s move injected a boost of energy into the national political scene and will likely lead other new political groups, such as reservists, protest groups, and others, to rev up their public presence as well. While Netanyahu did receive a lifeline for the short term, political energy is now at a new level and public pressure for an election is likely to increase.

New column for New Hope in election polls

3. Polls will now include a separate column for New Hope, and Gantz’s consistent performance of nearly 40 seats in polls is likely to decrease to less than 35, perhaps even less, if Sa’ar manages to pull votes away from Gantz’s centrist party.

4. The race is on now for other right-wing figures, including former prime minister Naftali Bennett, former interior and justice minister Ayelet Shaked, former communications minister Yoaz Hendel, and former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen to throw their hat into the political ring.

Expect Sa’ar to immediately begin to collect endorsements from as many prominent right-wing figures, to create facts on the ground, and to position himself as the leading political option between Gantz and Netanyahu.