US-Israel relations tested as gap between President Biden, Netanyahu widens - analysis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden spoke on the phone Monday for the first time in over a month as tensions between the two leaders continue to increase.

The conversation focused on Israel’s war against Hamas. The campaign, which is now in its sixth month, has driven a wedge between the longtime allies that some are calling unprecedented. While the relationship between the US and Israel has been dotted with disagreements and crises, the alliance has largely been considered steadfast and unwavering.

Tensions between President Biden and Netanyahu were evident even before the war, as the Israeli government sought to promote a widespread reform of the country’s judicial system. While Netanyahu insisted that the reform would make Israel even more democratic, the US voiced its concerns that the overhaul would concentrate power in Israel’s executive branch. The White House also criticized the inclusion of several far-right ultranationalist cabinet ministers in the Netanyahu government.

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Following Hamas’ surprise offensive against Israel, during which approximately 1,200 people were killed, President Biden set aside his differences with Netanyahu and moved to show immediate support for the Jewish state. In a visit to Tel Aviv just days after the attack, the American leader expressed solidarity with the Israeli people and vowed to continue the steady supply of arms to Israel. The US also mobilized aircraft carriers to the region to deter Israel’s other foes, mainly Iran, from joining the war.

As the war continued, the US raised more questions about Israel’s tactics and end-game strategy. Israel’s offensive in Gaza has led to high casualties, with Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry reporting over 31,000 Palestinians killed and 73,000 injured. The offensive has led to widespread destruction in the territory that will cost billions of dollars to repair. Various international organizations have also warned of famine in Gaza, upping the pressure on Israel to halt its offensive.

In the past weeks, the tone adopted by senior American officials toward Israel’s leaders has escalated. Earlier this year, the American president was reported to have called Netanyahu a “bad f***ing guy,” which he denied having said. But last week, he went on the record saying the Israeli leader was causing more harm than good to his country.

“This is a unique crisis, both because it is in the midst of a war and because of what appears to be its very personal nature,” Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, head of the International and Middle Eastern Arenas at Reichman University’s Institute for Policy and Strategy, told The Media Line. “The personal criticism, rather than criticism of policy, makes this crisis exceptional and perhaps one of the most acute.”

The main point of contention is a pending Israeli military operation in Rafah, a city in the southern Gaza Strip. According to the United Nations, a majority of the approximately 1.7 million Palestinians displaced by the war are taking shelter in Rafah. Rafah is the only city in Gaza that has not yet seen an operation of Israeli ground troops.

As Israel delays its operation in Rafah, international pressure against operating in the city has grown. Many countries are warning of an exacerbated humanitarian crisis in Rafah, prompting Israel to consider how best to handle the city’s civilian population.

Netanyahu has vowed to operate in Rafah, saying that Hamas’ senior leadership is hiding there. The city is also home to an extensive underground tunnel network that is believed to cross into neighboring Egypt. The tunnels are Hamas’ main lifeline and source of weapons, making the target a critical one in Israel’s mission to dismantle the terrorist organization’s military capabilities.

“The US feels Israel is not doing enough to meet the humanitarian needs in Gaza and they want answers about how Israel intends to deal with the civilian presence in Rafah,” Har-Zvi said. “The humanitarian issue is at the core of the disagreement.”

According to a White House readout of the call between the two leaders, Netanyahu agreed to send a delegation to the US to “exchange views and discuss alternative approaches that would target key elements of Hamas and secure the Egypt-Gaza border without a major ground operation in Rafah.”

“The American perception is that because of Netanyahu’s political considerations, he is rejecting any possible solution,” Har-Zvi added. “He is not only missing what could be a historic opportunity, but also strategically entangling Israel by increasing the risk of a wider conflict and this will directly hurt American strategic interests.”

Tensions on Israel’s northern border have also escalated, threatening to widen the scope of the conflict. These developments have the White House increasingly on edge.

Negotiations for a truce and a deal that would see the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas released could have a calming effect on the region. Those talks are currently underway in Qatar.

“The US government is concerned that the failure of these talks will mean a regional escalation,” Har-Zvi said. “There is an understanding within the administration that the region is now at a critical crossroads.”

During last month’s Democratic primary in Michigan, in which the incumbent president was running uncontested, 13% of voters voted “uncommitted” as part of a movement to protest his handling of the Israel-Gaza war. That result signaled to the White House that its Gaza policy was putting the president at risk.

“In the beginning of the war, Biden was willing to pay the price for his support for Israel, but now the uncommitted votes appear to be gaining momentum and will likely influence Biden,” Har-Zvi explained.

Over the weekend, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer sharply criticized Netanyahu and called for early elections in Israel. Schumer was criticized both by Israelis and by US Republicans for interfering in internal Israeli affairs. The president praised the majority leader’s speech, further upsetting Netanyahu.

Although the current tensions between Israel and the US have been called unprecedented, the two countries have faced rocky periods before.

“There is a tendency to see crises as ‘the worst’ in the heat of the moment,” Zalman Shoval, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, told The Media Line.

He said there have been “far worse” crises than what Israel and the US are currently facing.

In the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel and the US faced disagreements about how to prevent future conflict between Israel and Egypt. As a result of the disagreements, the US “reassessed” its relations with Israel and froze arms deliveries to the country, leading to great tension between the allies. Israel later went on to sign a disengagement agreement with Egypt, likely due to American pressure.

In the early 1990s, President George H.W. Bush announced that the US would withhold loan guarantees to Israel until it stopped building settlements in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Both crises appeared unprecedented and, to some, insurmountable.

Israeli and American society have both changed significantly since the time of those crises. The Israeli public has increasingly shifted to the right, with consistently less support for a negotiated solution that would see the establishment of a Palestinian state. The Democratic Party has also changed in recent years, with a growing progressive element that shows more support for the Palestinians.

“These changes must not be underestimated,” Shoval said. “The political future of both countries is unclear.”

This future depends very much on the fate of the American and Israeli leaders. President Biden is in the midst of an election campaign set to culminate in November 2024. Netanyahu is lagging in the polls, and his increasingly unpopular government is not expected to last until the scheduled 2026 elections. The outcomes of elections in both countries will impact how the crisis plays out.

“The question is whether the US will continue to see itself as the leader of the Western world or if isolationist tendencies will grow,” Shoval said.

He added that personal chemistry between the two leaders is not as significant a factor as many believe. Israel and the US still have mutual interests, and the countries will eventually overcome the current crisis, Shoval said.

“American defense support for Israel also stems from its own interests, including financial ones,” he said. “Unless there will be a fundamental shift in the US, this cooperation will continue.”

Israel spends billions of dollars every year on American weapons systems, military equipment, and services.

The US appears eager to end the war, despite its stated support for Israel’s goal of dismantling Hamas. Public opinion in Israel, on the other hand, is very much in favor of continuing the war effort. This trend is evident in many polls and is independent of Netanyahu’s declining popularity.

“When Americans come to express reservations about Netanyahu, they need to remember that there is overwhelming support in Israel for the war,” Shoval said. “I am not sure they understand the basic factors in the domestic politics here.”