Haredi draft issue has made no progress, but it must - opinion

The continued reality that 90% of adult haredi (ultra-Orthodox) males are exempt from national service has no moral, halachic, or security justification. This was true before October 7 and has become a critical issue since. Having formed part of the debate during the period of legal reform before the war, it is now a burning public issue.

There are many people responsible for the fact that the haredi community has been exempted for the 76 years since the creation of the State of Israel, starting with David Ben-Gurion and including pretty much every government since.

But in the very real-world crisis in which Israel finds itself, the issue has crystallized due to the huge sacrifice made by conscripted and reserve soldiers since October 7 and the army’s need for more combat forces. With the immediate and long-term requirement for battle-trained soldiers going up, the haredi leadership is doubling down on its rhetoric.

Currently, the only thing standing between real change in government policy and the untenable status quo is the political needs of the prime minister, backed by the religious Zionist parties in the government. It is time for the moral masses on the political and religious right to call their leaders out and demand a change of course. The fact that any change will take time to have an impact only increases the urgency for action.

The country needs more soldiers, in particular combat soldiers. In order to achieve this, the army is demanding that conscripted soldiers extend their service and that those in reserve be called upon for extended periods of service for the foreseeable future. There is a limited number of populations that can provide additional pools for recruitment, namely, female soldiers (whose number in combat roles is on the rise) and haredi men.

The government is in a bind. Public opinion is now strongly and emotively against any extension of the blanket exemption for over 60,000 haredi yeshiva students, and on the other hand, the government is politically beholden to the haredi parties, which as yet remain firm in their resistance.

The law allowing for the haredi exemption actually expired in June 2023, and now there are several cases before the Supreme Court calling for two measures as a result. One is to force the Defense Ministry’s hand and start calling up haredi men, and the second is to halt any financial support for the yeshivot, with students now legally required to enlist. Both outcomes are political causus belli for the haredi parties.

Raising the age of exemption

In an attempt to stave off these sanctions, the government is mulling a decision that will, among other things, increase the age of exemption to 34. This means that any haredi not performing national service will not be legally allowed to work until they are 34. Currently, the age is 26. This will turn the clock back to 2010.

Dr. Gilad Malach of the Israel Democracy Institute is an expert on government policy on conscription and haredim. He notes that, in contrast to what is now being claimed by the government, not only will this not increase the number of haredim joining the IDF but it may cause the opposite. According to Malach, all the data shows just the opposite.

“History and experience have shown us that it will also have a negative impact on the quality and quantity of the haredi participation in the employment market. The later haredim seek training or employment, the less likely they will be able to train for highly skilled work,” he says.

Alternatively, reducing the age of exemption causes more haredim to seek employment at a younger age, with the ability to skill up in order to exploit the opportunity. Instead of raising the age, Malach and all the experts would prefer that the government reduce it.

Yoav Gradus, director-general of the Budget Department in Israel’s Ministry of Finance, issued a letter to the defense minister on Sunday, following the publication of the proposed government decision. Reports in the press stressed that the decision was being driven without the normal professional input from relevant government ministries, which only increases the sense that the decision is purely political, without any real prospect of a positive impact on either increased participation in the army or the economy.

In the letter, he is quite specific: “From an economic point of view, the condition connecting the non-conscription of men and their non-integration into the labor market led, as mentioned, to the creation of employment patterns that produce long-term damage to the entire economy.”

Shaked reflects on decade of failure

In a stunning and unusually candid moment from an Israeli politician, former minister of justice Ayelet Shaked, who was closely involved in the conscription law passed in 2014, admitted that all her hopes for the law and the process it was meant to create have failed. “At the time we passed the law, the annual haredi cohort of boys numbered 8,000, and 1,200 were conscripted. After 10 years, we didn’t reach (our target of) 6,000. Indeed, the cohort has grown to 12,000, and the number of conscripts is 1,800,” she told a recent conference at Tel Aviv University. In the meantime, the army’s needs have grown dramatically. 

No magic bullet

There are no easy fixes to this entrenched problem. Nobody expects or believes that masses of haredim will join the IDF immediately, no matter what policy is employed by the government. However, the need to shift course is now. At the very least, the government has to begin the process.

For this to happen, one of two things will have to occur. Either the Likud and the Religious Zionist Party will have to force the issue with the haredi parties or there will have to be elections with the ball dropping into the lap of the next government. Urgency demands that this happens under the auspices of the current government. Politics determines that this is an unlikely outcome.

For the first to happen, Netanyahu and Smotrich will have to switch course, the risk being that the haredi parties will bolt the coalition and the government will fall. On the other hand, Gantz, Eisenkot, and perhaps Defense Minister Gallant can force their hand by either demanding a different policy or delivering an ultimatum to leave the government. Of course, elections will delay the process.

One way or another, there will soon be irresistible public pressure for change. This will have to include reduced government budgets supporting yeshivas for haredim who do not serve and increasing budgets for haredi institutions and programs that encourage national service, whether military or civilian. The government must support schools teaching core studies and social responsibility and reduce budgets to schools that are not preparing their students to make a full contribution to Israeli society. 

Nobody wants to see Haredim stop being loyal to their religious identity, but most Israelis are in no mood to see the status quo extended.

The writer, a founding partner of Goldrock Capital, is the founder of The Institute for Jewish and Zionist Research. He is a former chair of Gesher, World Bnei Akiva, and the Coalition for Haredi Employment.