Few Israelis believe government will last full term - poll 

Only a minority of Israelis — 36% of Jews and 38% of Arabs — across the political spectrum expect the current government to last through the remainder of its term, according to a new poll from the Israel Democracy Institute. 

Right-wing Jewish respondents were the most likely to predict a full term for the current government, which is set to govern until 2026, and even among that cohort this view was a minority, represented by 44% of respondents. Among Jews in the center, 24% expect the government to last, and among left-wing Jews, only 19%. 

Broken down by party, the most optimistic by far about the government’s ability to survive a full term were voters from the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox Shas party, 71% of whom said there was a high likelihood the government would last through 2026. Among Likud voters, 51% predicted the government would last, and among all other parties it was only a minority.

Optimism further declines about the future of democracy, security in Israel

The poll also showed declining optimism about the future of both democracy and security in Israel, and found a lack of conviction among broad swathes of the country that Israel’s leadership is doing all it can to secure the release of hostages held captive by Hamas in Gaza.

Only 37% of Jews and 24% of Arabs said they were optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel. Only 38% of Jews and 17% of Arabs said they were optimistic about the country’s future national security. 

On both counts, Jews were more optimistic the further right they were on the political spectrum, with half of right-wing Israelis expressing optimism about the future of Israeli democracy, and 44% expressing optimism about national security, compared to left-wing Jews, only 13% of whom were optimistic about democracy and 20% about national security. 

Asked whether they believe that the government is doing all it can to secure the release of the hostages in Gaza, 66% of right-wing Jews said they believe that the government is, but only 29% of Jews in the center and 23% of Jews in the left did, while only 30% of Arabs said they believed the government was doing its utmost to bring the hostages home. 

Interestingly, Jewish men were more likely than Jewish women to believe the government is doing its utmost to secure the release of the hostages, whereas Arab women were more likely to hold the same view than Arab men.

About half of Israelis say Hamas is representative of the Palestinians

Respondents were asked whether, despite its actions, Hamas should be recognized as a representative organization for large segments of the Palestinian people. On this question, almost all segments of the population looked roughly the same: 46.5% of Arabs said that Hamas should be recognized as representative, while 46% of Jews did: among Jews, the difference between those on the left and the right was only 5%, with 42% on the left saying Hamas is representative, and 47% on the right. 

Pollsters noted, however, that different respondents may have agreed to the proposition for different reasons, explaining: “For some respondents, agreeing that Hamas represents large sections of the Palestinian public may reflect recognition of Hamas and willingness to conduct negotiations with it, while for others, agreement may reflect the perception that Hamas’s (illegitimate) views and actions reflect those of large sections of the Palestinian people.”

More Jews than Arabs say Israeli govt policy made way for October 7

On other questions about Hamas, there was a larger gap between Jewish and Arab responses. Asked whether “the policy of Israeli governments toward Hamas in recent years made it easier for Hamas to carry out the October 7 attack,” a large majority of Jews across the political spectrum— 87% of Jews on the left and center, and 83% of Jews on the right— answered in the affirmative, but only 55% of Arabs did.

Asked whether Hamas bears a great deal of responsibility for the suffering of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, an overwhelming majority (94.5%) of Jewish respondents said the group does bear that responsibility, while a smaller majority— 61.5% of Arabs did. 

A larger gap in responses came with the question of whether, “if a Palestinian state is established, Hamas will cease its struggle against Israel.” Half (52%) of Arab respondents agreed with the proposition, but almost only 5% of Jews did. 

Another large gap came in response to the question of whether “Israel should implement its part of the UN Security Council resolution that includes a demand for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire during Ramadan and the immediate and unconditional release of the Israeli hostages.” 

Only 32% of Jews— 53% of those on the left, 45% of those on the center, and only 24% of those on the right— said yes, but 78% of Arabs did.