N13 poll: Next PM is toss up between Gantz or Bennett

If elections were held today without changes in the party lineup, the National Unity Party led by Benny Gantz would win 30 seats, becoming the largest faction in the Knesset, according to a News 13 poll from Sunday.

According to the poll, Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu would slightly strengthen compared to previous polls, winning 20 seats. Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid would receive 15 seats. Yisrael Beytenu led by Avigdor Liberman strength in the Knesset would grow to 11 seats, while J Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gvir would receive 9 seats.

Shas led by Arye Deri would win 8 seats, while the Religious Zionist Party led by Bezalel Smotrich, and United Torah Judaism led by Yitzhak Goldknopf each would gain 7 seats. Hadash-Ta’al led by Ayman Odeh wins 5 seats, and Ra'am led by Mansour Abbas garners 4 seats.

N13 report further claims that in contrast to previous surveys, the Labor Party - which has not yet elected a new leader - would win 4 seats, while the Meretz, New Hope which is led by Gideon Sa’ar, and Balad parties would not pass the electoral threshold.

The  “Change Government” parties collectively receive 64 seats, the N13 report states. Meanwhile, the Netanyahu Bloc strengthens compared to previous surveys, amassing 51 seats. In the middle stands the Hadash-Ta’al.

Shifting mandate picture

“The mandate picture shifts dramatically when examining a scenario where a new center-right party, led by former Prime Minister Naftali bennettt, former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, and Gideon Sa'ar, emerges, along with a new left-wing party led by Yair Golan,” N13’s report states.

In this scenario, the new party led by bennettt, Cohen, and Sa'ar would win 32 seats - becoming the largest faction in the Knesset. However, the National Unity Party led by Gantz would drop to only 15 seats. Likud, led by Netanyahu, would also drop to 15 seats in this scenario. The left-wing party led by Yair Golan would win 9 seats.

N13’s survey also showed that Yesh Atid, led by Lapid, would weaken due to the formation of the centrist right party and the new left-wing party – and would have only 8 seats. Yisrael Beytenu also weakened in the survey and won 7 seats. Additionally, according to N13, in this scenario Otzma Yehudit gains 8 seats, Shas and United Torah Judaism each receive 6 seats - and the Religious Zionist Party slightly weakens to 5 seats.

The survey also examined what is the best timing for elections according to Israelis, N13 reported.

According to the results, 33% of respondents believe that elections should be held by the end of 2024, while 30% think they should take place immediately. In total, 63% of Israelis believe that elections should be held before October 2026. Additionally, a large majority, 68%, do not believe Netanyahu's statement that Israel stands on the verge of victory in the Gaza war.

Only 16% trust the Prime Minister's statement, while 16% responded that they are unsure.

Finally, respondents were asked whether Prime Minister Netanyahu should dismiss National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir following his response to the Iranian attack dubbed 'Drone'. 48% of respondents believe Netanyahu should dismiss Ben Gvir, while 35% think he should not. 17% responded that they are unsure.