Even with a ceasefire, war with Hezbollah will happen by 2026, policy experts say

The Alma Center, which studies Israel's security challenges on the northern border, hosted a conference on Thursday that featured Maj.-Gen. (res.) Gershon HaCohen, Maariv reported on Friday, where the Israeli official spoke of the ongoing threat of Hezbollah, including some predictions of war by 2026. 

"Why did Iran and Hezbollah declare war on Israel? It's impossible to answer without going into the realms of religion," HaCohen said.

"Hezbollah operates on a strategy of faith and belief. They are operated by Jihad. God is a factor for them when making decisions. The believer can make the impossible possible. The expression of faith in Hezbollah's practice is the concept of Al-Muqawamah. It is not 'resistance,' but something that begins with cosmic perceptions.”

"The strategy of Jihad and Al-Muqawamah is synchronization - on the one hand, they believe that they must not stop the struggle - on the other hand, they are very practical. They are fighting for a vision of Islamic redemption. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei believes that he will pray at the Al-Aqsa Mosque – giving him, and Hezbollah, a reason to fight until the destruction of Israel."

Tal Be’eri, head of research department of the Alma Center also spoke, noting that "the main problem is Hezbollah's precision weapons project. They have Fateh-110 missiles, which have a range of 330 kilometers and an impact radius of up to 10 meters. Such a missile can hit a car in Tel Aviv even if launched from Lebanon. 

“The accuracy potential very quickly moved to grads and flak missiles. What is particularly troubling is the short-range issue - which is presented by 65,000 rockets and missiles."

Arsenal of hundreds of thousands of weapons 

He further explained that "At the CERS (Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center) center in Syria, there is a project to upgrade Iranian rockets - called 'destroyers' - to precision rockets. Our new assessment is that instead of hundreds of precision rockets and missiles and precision weapons, Hezbollah has thousands. Out of 250,000 weapons, we estimate that they have several thousand precision weapons. There are underground shafts in Lebanon for launching missiles like the Fateh-110.”

Regarding the Radwan force, Hezbollah's special forces, he said: "We estimate that if there is a decision, the force will be able to carry out an invasion of Israel with smaller forces, of around 100 to 200 operatives. This is contrary to their original plan, of thousands of terrorists.

“If Hezbollah enters into a ceasefire soon, my personal assessment is that at the latest, by the end of 2026 - a war with Hezbollah will break out."

Lt. Col. (res.) Sarit Zahavi, president and founder of the Alma Center and member of the Deborah Forum, said: "How does one indoctrinate? Civilian and military wings do not exist separately in Hezbollah. Hezbollah's civilian formations pose a significant danger to Israel and the world. The main insight is that once a civil infrastructure and direct contact with the population is produced, and supported by it, it allows Hezbollah to instill the values of the Islamic revolution, as well as population dependence, so that the population cannot imagine anything else.

“In doing so, Hezbollah also produces a human shield. Hezbollah's executive council has nine fields of activity in every imaginable civilian field."