Are West Bank terrorists as dangerous as the ones once in Gaza? - analysis

A recent IDF air strike in the Nur al-Shams refugee camp next to Tulkarm killed five terrorists. The attack was carried out by a drone, according to a Ynet article. This is part of a growing trend of the IDF using air strikes in the West Bank to neutralize terrorists. In early July, such a strike took place. In mid-July, there was a similar strike in Nur al-Shams, and in mid-August, another was reported near Tubas.

These air strikes are part of a larger trend in the West Bank to handle the threat originating from terrorist groups who are converging and increasing their activities in the region. Terrorist cells are expanding their infrastructure, empowered through the presence of smuggled rifles that have flooded parts of the West Bank in the last two years.

In the recent strike in Nur al-Shams, the Palestinian media reported that one of the terrorists killed was Jibril Jibril, a man who was released in November 2023 as part of a hostage deal in which Israel released Palestinian prisoners in exchange for women and children who were being held hostage in Gaza.

While IDF is succeeding in Gaza, West Bank threat is growing

This is important because it showcases an overall trend in the northern West Bank: the terrorist threat is growing. In the meantime, the IDF is succeeding in its fight against Hamas in Gaza, as IDF units are pushing into the outskirts of Deir el-Balah.

For instance, the IDF said this week that “the troops of the 7th Brigade continue to expand operational activity on the outskirts of Deir el-Balah. In the past two weeks, the soldiers eliminated dozens of terrorists, and over 100 terror targets were struck in aerial operations in the southern Gaza Strip.”

So, the terrorist threat is being slowly ground down in Gaza like sandpaper-wearing wood. Case in point, during a recent raid in the region, IDF forces from the 202nd Battalion “located munitions, anti-tank missiles, military vests, and knives stored next to a baby crib in a children’s room in a residential apartment,” the military said this week.

In Gaza, the IDF has several divisions involved in putting pressure on Hamas. The 162nd Division has defeated the Hamas brigades in Rafah in three months of fighting. As for the Netzarim Corridor, the 16th Brigade, 10th Brigade, and 454th Brigade, under the command of the 252nd Division, have killed around 200 terrorists in several months. The 98th Division has also eliminated dozens of terrorists in Khan Yunis and is now on the outskirts of Deir el-Balah.

However, even as the IDF pushes forward in Gaza and grinds down Hamas, the IDF in the West Bank is resorting to drone strikes and sometimes raids into places like Nur al-Shams.

This is increasingly leading to a phenomenon of convergence between the West Bank and Gaza. The more the IDF succeeds in Gaza, the more it can be compared to the West Bank in terms of the success of defeating the terrorists’ abilities.

Still, the capabilities of terrorist groups in the West Bank are mounting. It is possible that at some point this convergence may occur and the trends may shift, such that the West Bank becomes the larger threat and Hamas in Gaza is mostly defeated.

What will happen if the West Bank becomes more like Gaza once was, and Gaza becomes more like the West Bank in terms of the security threat that it poses?

In other words, there may be a point where terror infrastructure increases in places like Jenin, Tulkarm, Kalkilya, Tubas, and other areas, and the groundwork is put in place for the terrorist groups to increase their strength and build up more capabilities. This is what Hamas did in Gaza prior to its takeover of it in 2007. It was able to do this slowly and achieve this through infiltrating areas such as the Philadelphi Corridor during the Second Intifada. The IDF’s current operations in Rafah, for example, are not the first time that Hamas has had to be cleared from this area. It has established arms factories and tunnels in the past as well.

Currently, the concern of convergence may just be a warning. The terrorist groups in the West Bank do have rifles, mostly smuggled M-4 and AR types, but they do not have a lot of other weapons.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Hamas has had a goal of using the October 7 massacre to increase its power in the region. It has done this in Lebanon and also in the West Bank. Behind the Hamas threat stands Iran and Iran’s other proxies, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Countries such as Turkey also back Hamas, and Qatar hosts Hamas. This makes for a concerning mix of agendas and interests. As the IDF succeeds in Gaza, it is worth concentrating on the challenge in the West Bank that is embodied by the terrorist threats in places like Nur al-Shams.