Israel faces surge in security incidents as threats rise on all fronts - analysis

Three Israelis were killed by a terrorist at the Allenby Bridge crossing on Sunday. The next day, 13 suspects were detained on the Trans-Israel Highway (Highway 6) in a security incident. One of the suspects was arrested on suspicion of planning an imminent terrorist attack, while the 12 others were in Israel illegally.

Then, on Monday evening, there was another security incident on the Egyptian border. In addition, Israel busted an attempt to smuggle handguns via the border crossing with Jordan near Eilat.

The four incidents are not particularly unique if taken one at a time. There has been smuggling along the Egyptian border for many years. This has led to threats to Israel and several incidents in which the IDF has had to respond to smugglers who operate along the border.

In addition, the smuggling of weapons from Jordan has increased in recent years. Finding dozens of handguns is vital, but it is not unique. That a terrorist was apprehended on Highway 6 is rare, but terrorist threats to Israel have existed for years.

When we zoom out and look at all these incidents, however, and then add them up with the daily attacks by Hezbollah, the rocket fire targeting Ashkelon by Hamas in Gaza, and the ongoing operations against terrorists in the West Bank, it’s clear that Israel continues to confront an unprecedented series of security challenges.

These challenges do not come in a vacuum. The Iranian “Axis of Resistance” wants to exploit them. Hezbollah is seeking to escalate its attacks, and a drone slammed into a residential building in Nahariya on Monday. Hezbollah has carried out a large number of attacks against northern Israel in recent days. In addition, Israel faces threats from Syria. Syrian media accused Israel of carrying out airstrikes in Masyaf this week.

Rising complexity of threats

According to Iran’s government-controlled Islamic Republic News Agency, Oman has condemned the incidents in Syria. Oman is usually not a significant player in these affairs. The story is part of a broader aspect of the Iranian use of Syria to threaten Israel.

Iran and other countries are paying attention. The Egyptian border incident was covered by the UAE-based Al Ain news site. This indicates that there is an increased focus on how the war in Gaza is also potentially fueling or leading to chaos and threats on many other fronts.

Most of these fronts were well known. Israeli officials have spoken of a seven-front war. It’s one thing to confront the Houthi threat using complex air defenses, but it’s another to confront more minor daily attacks such as the one on the Jordanian border and the Highway 6 incident.

The overall issue is that Israel is now confronting multiple types of threats that are more complex than in the past. The smuggling threat, for instance, should now be seen as more significant. The weapons smuggled into the West Bank have fueled a much larger conflict with terrorist groups. We’re not talking about just a few rifles and handguns; it is a considerable amount. For many years, there was a sense that smuggling of arms was “criminal” and was similar to drug smuggling on the Egyptian border.

So long as weapons smuggling and theft were seen as “criminal,” it was not seen as a major threat. This is a mistaken view. Hamas has thrived because of the chaos of the “criminal” threats. The criminal threats have fueled the terrorist threat. Arms and drug smuggling are fueling the same chaos that terrorist groups exploit. The smuggling attempts on the Jordanian border fuel the complacency that leads to terrorist groups exploiting the chaos to carry out attacks such as the one at the Allenby Bridge crossing.

The challenge for Israel is not ballistic missiles, drones, or Hamas rockets. Those are one type of challenge, but the threat is changing.

The threat is shifting to the West Bank and other areas. It is part of a more significant attempt by the Iranian “Axis of Resistance” to erode Israel’s capabilities by challenging it with numerous threats on numerous fronts. By doing so, Tehran can keep the battle within or close to Israel’s borders and, therefore, far from Iran.