Bennett overtakes Netanyahu: New poll shows Likud slipping amid political shift - poll

Naftali Bennett’s political comeback gains momentum as his new party surpasses Likud in the latest poll, which shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party slipping to 24 seats amid a stagnating coalition and rising opposition strength, according to a Maariv poll published on Friday.

After gaining momentum from recent successes against Hezbollah, the Likud party is now losing ground, dropping two seats to 24. Meanwhile, the opposition bloc has strengthened to 58 seats. In a surprising turn, a party led by Naftali Bennett has once again become the largest.

The latest mandate poll reveals that the coalition's recent gains, which had surged amid the conflict with Hezbollah, have hit a roadblock this week. According to a poll conducted for Maariv by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar and in collaboration with the Panel4All online panel, the coalition’s momentum has stalled.

“After weeks of upward movement, Likud’s rise has been halted, dropping two seats to 24,” the poll indicates. At the same time, the National Unity Party gained one seat to reach 20, while Yesh Atid remains steady with 14. Yisrael Beyteinu also held its ground at 14 seats, as did Shas with 10 seats. Meanwhile, the Democrats rose by one seat to 10, Otzma Yehudit stayed at seven seats, and United Torah Judaism remained unchanged at 7. The Arab parties, Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, each held their five seats, and Religious Zionism remained at four.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who is plotting a political comeback, has reason to celebrate. "Bennett’s party leads with 21 seats," the poll shows, “compared to Likud’s 20,” marking a three-seat drop for Likud since just before Rosh Hashanah.

Bennett wins over the undecided voters

The poll also reveals that “most of Bennett’s support comes from undecided voters and those who previously backed the National Unity Party and Yisrael Beyteinu.” This shift has pushed the combined strength of opposition parties and Bennett's new party to 63 seats, leaving Netanyahu’s coalition at 47.

Conducted on October 9-10, 2024, the poll surveyed 500 respondents representing Israel's adult population, including both Jewish and Arab participants. The margin of error stands at 4.4%.