Hezbollah drone attack on IDF base marks major escalation in precision strike capability - analysis

The Hezbollah drone attack on an IDF training base on Sunday serves as a serious escalation and shows how deadly Hezbollah’s drones have become – precision strikes using kamikaze drones.

The Hezbollah drone threat has been known for several years. However, it only manifested itself after Hezbollah began its attacks on October 8, 2023. The organization has launched hundreds of kamikaze drones, which have become increasingly precise, narrowing in on IDF soldiers and facilities. Hezbollah often claims responsibility for these attacks after it carries them out, sometimes even publishing videos.

The drone attacks have become increasingly deadly and effective. In April, Hezbollah targeted a location where soldiers were located – the Bedouin village Arab al-Aramshe. In May, Hezbollah targeted Sky Dew, an Israeli Air Force’s (IAF) advanced observation balloon, in central Galilee, attacking it by drone. In June, Hezbollah used drones to target a soccer field near Hurfeish, wounding nine soldiers.

It also used drones on Yom Kippur to target Herzliya and has released footage from surveillance Hezbollah conducted using drones, footage that covered IDF bases and sensitive sites in Israel. In July, it published footage of the Ramat David army base. Hezbollah also claimed it targeted Iron Dome battery sites, stating in April that it targeted a site near Beit Hillel.

Now, Hezbollah is again claiming success after killing four soldiers on Sunday and wounding around 60 others. Iranian media IRNA reported after the attack that Hezbollah “said it remains prepared to defend the Lebanese nation against the regime’s aggression.”

The IRNA, which receives statements from Hezbollah, claimed that 110 people were wounded in the attack, a “qualitative rocket barrage on the Zionist regime’s rehabilitation and maintenance center.”

Drone attacks mark major escalation

Drone production has progressed such that now, Iranian proxies all use similar drones, which have a long range and can fly complex routes to their destination. The Houthis and Iraqi militia drone attacks have become more common recently. In addition, Hezbollah has shown it can use these drones in precision strikes, illustrating that it can gather information or intelligence before initiating the attack itself.

This marks a major escalation point. In the past, Hezbollah had sent unguided rockets to rain down on Israel, but these are not very precise. Several years ago, reports said Hezbollah acquired precision-guided munitions, or PGMs, which are much more threatening because they can be used for precise attacks on strategic sites.

Hezbollah is now showcasing its drones’ capabilities. The drone threat is growing globally, and Hezbollah is helping demonstrate what drones can do.

However, the organization is not a pioneer in deadly drone attacks. Iranian drones used by the Houthis terrorized Saudi Arabia in the past and are being used by Russia to attack Ukraine in its ongoing invasive war there. Hezbollah, though, is exhibiting what drones are capable of doing. A war cannot be won aided by drones alone, but these can carry out deep and precise strikes.

Hezbollah has conducted several hundred drone attacks. Iran is likely taking notes and sharing the information with Hezbollah or discussing possible targets. The fact that an Iraqi drone killed two IDF soldiers and wounded others in the Golan recently may illustrate that Iran coordinated with Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and Yemen to divide Israel into sectors – so that each proxy attacks certain areas. The Iraqis have targeted Eilat, as have the Houthis.

A recent report at Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar indicated that the Houthis are boasting they will try to target Israel’s Sa’ar ships near Eilat. Iran is watching this closely and is pleased to see how its proxies are spreading the drone threat throughout Israel.