Yahya Sinwar pulls the strings from hiding - but his caution may not save him - analysis

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has kept a low profile, staying in hiding while sending messages to his commanders, and instead of managing the military campaign directly, he has been offering only broad policy directions.

According to assessments, Sinwar is banking on a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, hoping such a conflict would reduce military pressure on Gaza and give him more time.

Security officials believe that Sinwar has adopted a strategy of hiding for about a month at a time before briefly surfacing to pass instructions to his remaining commanders, only to retreat back into hiding again.

This approach complicates efforts by Israel and international mediators to advance negotiations for the release of hostages. According to officials, Sinwar is counting on a direct clash between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah to prevent the Israeli military from concentrating greater forces in Gaza, thus buying him time and a chance to survive.

Unlike Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who has managed military campaigns against Israel with centralized command and strict orders, Sinwar's approach is different. Security sources note that Sinwar “only outlines general policies and red lines, and rarely gives direct commands.” The operational gaps left by the assassination of senior Hamas figures are being filled by others, including his brother, Muhammad Sinwar, who is described as more experienced and ruthless.

Sinwar renewed contact with Hamas representatives in Qatar

Security officials have disclosed in the past that IDF forces recently came close to locating Sinwar during an operation in Gaza. There are also estimates that Sinwar was in the vicinity of hostages. A senior Israeli official confirmed that recent intelligence indicates Sinwar has renewed contact with Hamas representatives in Qatar, sending new messages.

While it is unclear exactly when these messages were sent, the official emphasized that “there was no indication” that Sinwar had softened his stance on the hostage deal. Similarly, the Saudi news channel Al Arabiya also reported that Sinwar recently reestablished communication with Qatar.