Likud gains steady lead, Israelis prefer Trump over Harris - survey

If Knesset elections were held today, with the current party structure intact, the Likud party under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would remain the leading party, securing 26 seats, a new N12 survey published Monday revealed.

National Unity, led by Benny Gantz, ranks second-largest party with 22 seats.

Yesh Atid, headed by Yair Lapid, and Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, each appear to be losing ground, with 13 seats apiece. Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, and the Democrats, under Yair Golan, both hold 10 seats.

United Torah Judaism, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, maintains eight seats, while Otzma Yehudit, under Itamar Ben-Gvir, rises to 8 seats as well. Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, and Hadash-Ta’al remain steady with five seats each.

Three parties fall below the electoral threshold: Religious Zionism under Bezalel Smotrich, polling at 2.9%, Balad under Sami Abu Shehadeh, at 2.6%, and National Right, headed by Gideon Sa’ar, at 1%.

Opposition lacks a path to government without Arab support

The poll indicates that the opposition bloc, which includes Hadash-Ta’al, would gain 68 seats, compared to 52 seats for the coalition. This configuration means the opposition lacks the ability to form a government without including an Arab party such as Ra’am or Hadash-Ta’al.

The poll also evaluated a hypothetical scenario in which Naftali Bennett would reenter the race as leader of a new party. In this case, Bennett’s party would capture 21 seats, up by one seat from the previous survey. Likud would retain its lead with 24 seats, while National Unity under Gantz would see a significant decrease to 13 seats.

Yesh Atid would drop to 10 seats. Shas would remain stable at 10, while the Democrats would fall to 9 seats. Yisrael Beytenu, along with United Torah Judaism, would each secure eight seats, and Otzma Yehudit would achieve seven. Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al would keep their five-seat share.

Under this hypothetical, parties falling below the threshold include Religious Zionism, at 2.8%; Balad, at 2.6%; and National Right, at 0.8%.

On the question of suitability for prime minister, Netanyahu expanded his lead over his main rivals. Against Lapid, Netanyahu received 41% support, compared to Lapid’s 24%. Meanwhile, 31% of respondents felt neither was suitable, and 4% were undecided.

In a Netanyahu-Gantz matchup, Netanyahu led with 39% suitability compared to 27% for Gantz. Additionally, 29% of respondents stated neither was a suitable candidate, while 5% remained undecided.

When paired against Bennett, Netanyahu led with 38% suitability to Bennett’s 35%. Another 23% said neither candidate was suitable, and 4% were undecided.

Preferred timing for Knesset elections

Asked about their preferred timing for Knesset elections, 52% of respondents favored holding them “as soon as possible,” while 40% preferred the original date in late 2026, and 8% were undecided.

Among Netanyahu bloc supporters, 21% supported early elections, compared to 71% who preferred to wait. Among anti-Netanyahu bloc voters, 84% favored early elections, while 13% preferred the original schedule.

Views on Israel’s progress and security

In a question about Israel’s position in ongoing conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, 51% of respondents believed Israel is “winning,” while 26% disagreed.

Regarding Israel’s recent strike in Iran, 57% expressed general satisfaction, with 32% dissatisfied. Among Netanyahu bloc supporters, 66% expressed satisfaction compared to 27% who were dissatisfied, while 57% of anti-Netanyahu bloc voters were satisfied and 33% dissatisfied.

The poll gauged support for a draft law proposed by the coalition, with 15% in favor, 38% opposed, and 31% unaware of the law. Among those aware, 22% supported the proposal, while 56% opposed it, and 22% had no opinion.

US election preferences

Finally, respondents were asked about their preference in the upcoming US presidential election. Some 66% supported Donald Trump, with 17% favoring Kamala Harris and 17% undecided. Among Netanyahu bloc supporters, 93% favored Trump, compared to 1% favoring Harris.