Gallant: Hezbollah rocket arsenal down to 20%; Disagreements about how long to continue invasion

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told officers of the IDF Northern Command on Tuesday that Israel’s war against Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal has reduced it to 20% of its pre-war numbers.

He said, "The achievements of the IDF in Lebanon are extremely impressive. We have eliminated the chain of command and control of Hezbollah, and I estimate the missile and rocket capability they have left is at 20%."

Defense sources told The Jerusalem Post that the 20% comment related to the around 50,000 supply of rockets held by Hezbollah prior to October 23, 2023, meaning that this number is now down to around 10,000.

All of this is within the context of Hezbollah having had an estimated pre-war combined rocket and mortar (much shorter range than rockets) arsenal of 150,000.

Regarding the other weapons, such as mortars, sources told the Post that the IDF’s intelligence may not be as exact, and it is possible that there are still more of them, though also they are likely down to far under 50%.

How long will operations go on? 

In addition, because mortars are even shorter-range weapons, they will not be as usable against the IDF Home Front while Israel’s up to five divisions remain in southern Lebanon.

Also on Tuesday, Gallant emphasized the progress of the ground operations in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's terrorist infrastructure and the goal of returning residents of northern Israel to their homes.

There are disagreements within the defense and political establishments about how much longer to continue the ground invasion which started on September 30.

IDF Maj. Gen. Uri Gordon initially wanted to finish it by mid-late October, based on the idea that little more could be accomplished strategically, given that the government had limited the invasion to southern Lebanon anyway.

However, the government, many northern residents’ mayors, and some other defense officials have wanted to continue.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not shown any desire to finish the invasion before the US presidential election on November 5.

Gallat himself has not taken a public position on the timing and the Post has learned that he seems to be trying to navigate both between the opposing camps as well as maximizing the utility of the pressure the IDF has on Hezbollah for achieving a better diplomatic resolution of the northern border conflict.

Halevi warns against attacking Israel

Sources also said that the length of the invasion of southern Lebanon and IDF actions there, in general, could impact deterrence visa vise Iran.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi explicitly threatened the Islamic Republic on Tuesday saying that it could be necessary for Israel to strike Iran again and on a much wider basis if Tehran dares to attack the Jewish state a third time.

To date, Iran attacked Israel massively on April 13-14 and on October 1, with Jerusalem responding with a very limited counter-strike on April 19 and a much more aggressive counter-strike on October 26 this past weekend.

Hezbollah rocket kills Israeli Arab, wounds three children

Meanwhile, the MDA confirmed on Tuesday that a man was killed by a Hezbollah rocket in Ma'alot-Tarshiha in the Galilee region.

24-year-old Israeli Arab Mohammad Naim was killed by a direct hit to his house in the northern city.

A total of 13 others were wounded in the rocket fire and are in light condition, including three children, according to the Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya, including those suffering from anxiety.

"It was a difficult scene. There was a lot of destruction when we arrived and started searching the scene. There was an unconscious man with no pulse," MDA paramedic Gilad Ben Hamo said. "We gave him medical treatment, but his injury was too critical, and we had to pronounce him deceased.

"MDA teams are providing treatment on scene to a number of victims with anxiety," he continued. He also said that a 13-year-old boy sustained shrapnel injuries to his lower limbs.

Around the time of the man's death, the IDF reported that between 10:37 and 10:39  in the morning, about 50 rockets from Lebanon were fired into Israeli territory, which was the barrage where one of the rockets killed Naim.

IDF, UNIFIL, say Hezbollah responsible for UNIFIL deaths

Also, around the same time, Hezbollah announced Naim Qassem as the terrorist organization's new chief.

Separately, eight Austrian soldiers belonging to the UN peace-keeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) sustained slight and superficial injuries in a rocket strike on Camp Naqoura near the Israeli border, Austria's Defense Ministry said on Tuesday.

"We condemn this attack in the strongest possible terms and demand that it be investigated immediately," the ministry said in a statement, adding that it was not clear where the attack came from, and none of the soldiers needed urgent medical care.

Later on Tuesday, an IDF source told The Jerusalem Post that Hezbollah was responsible for firing rockets at the UNIFIL soldiers.

Some hours after the Post’s report, the IDF issued a public statement pointing the finger at Hezbollah and UNIFIL itself suggested Hezbollah was the likely culprit.

However, unlike those few instances when the IDF has accidentally struck UNIFIL units and countries across the globe have rushed to condemn Israel, there was little public criticism of Hezbollah by foreign governments.

The IDF told the Post that it is accusing UNIFIL of a double standard, as there have been several incidents in the past where Hezbollah killed UNIFIL soldiers in Lebanon.

A former UN Truce Supervision Organization soldier testified that UNIFIL was "totally subject to Hezbollah" when he worked in Lebanon 10 years ago in an interview with Danish news site B.T. in October.

In an earlier instance, in June of 2023, a Lebanese military tribunal formally accused five Hezbollah terrorists of killing an Irish UN peacekeeper in 2022.

There have also been many instances over the years where UNIFIL has downplayed its forces being killed or harassed by Hezbollah forces out of fear of reprisal if they made the incidents public.