Is the haredi draft crisis solvable, and what role does the Religious Zionist Party have in it?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have solved a serious political threat on Monday. Yitzhak Goldknopf, the chairman of United Torah Judaism, reneged on his threat to not support the 2025 budget if a bill granting a significant percentage of military-age haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men exemptions from IDF service does not pass.

However, the proposed solution, a bill that would alleviate haredi families from the severe financial consequences of losing daycare subsidies, is unlikely to withstand a challenge in the High Court, and as a result, it may not be able to pass in the first place.

According to a source in the coalition, the issue of haredi IDF service was unsolvable, and it could eventually topple the government.

Legal advisers from the Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee and the Defense Ministry, alongside Government Secretary Yossi Fuchs and former politician Ariel Atias, a representative of the haredi parties, have met repeatedly in recent months in an attempt to create a bill proposal that would meet the constitutional requirements of equality and fulfill the IDF’s manpower needs while enabling thousands of yeshiva students to continue their studies.

Thus far, these attempts have not yielded any success. Several reports indicate that the IDF needed 10,000 soldiers at the start of the war, and since then, an estimated 12,000 soldiers have sustained injuries in battle. Among Israel’s Jewish population, the approximately 60,000 military-age haredi men are the only remaining manpower pool large enough to fill those needs.

Paradoxically, from the government’s perspective, the smartest move may be to do nothing about it.

The government is legally required to draft all Israeli 18-year-olds, including haredim. However, the IDF has been slow to ramp up its recruiting from the haredi sector. IDF representatives have stated that they can only take approximately 3,000 more haredim than in previous years. Despite not having an official policy, IDF representatives are more inclined to meet their manpower needs by advocating for legislation that lengthens both mandatory and reserve duty, raises the reserve duty cutoff age, and attempts to reintegrate reservists who previously received exemptions.

Do religious Zionists hold the key to how the issue unfolds?

As the number of casualties rises, this position is becoming increasingly unacceptable to non-haredi Israelis. One group in Israeli society, religious Zionists in general and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP) in particular, may hold the key to how the issue unfolds.

The leader of RZP, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, broke into tears this week while discussing his constituents’ casualties, including a relative of his. Smotrich so far has been trying to take a middle ground on the issue. He has supported sharp increases in haredi recruitment while at the same time supporting efforts to counter sanctions against haredim who evade service.

At a press briefing with economic reporters on Tuesday, Smotrich remained ambiguous. He acknowledged the social implications of the ongoing illegal situation, where an increasing number of non-haredim are reporting for duty while their haredi brethren are not, but he did not commit to supporting financial sanctions to discourage the continuation of this situation.

But Smotrich is facing increasing pressure from his voter base to take a stand against the haredi draft evasion. If he eventually changes his stance and adapts financial policy to reflect this position, the haredi party leaders will find themselves without any more tools to avoid the draft. This could potentially prompt them to resort to desperate political maneuvers, such as destabilizing the government, in an attempt to prolong the current situation as much as possible.