Hezbollah's growing drone arsenal poses deadly new threat to Israel - analysis

Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah, Iraqi-based militias, and the Houthis continue to increase drone threats to Israel. This comes as Israel’s air defenses have intercepted many of the rocket and missile threats over the last year.

The drone threat is changing as Iran and its proxies judge this new type of technology to be one that they can leverage. One-way attack drones that strike their targets by flying into them are relatively cheap to make, hard to detect, and can fly thousands of miles.

This makes them a popular choice for Iranian-backed groups, giving them a kind of instant air force, as well as cruise missile types of capabilities.

The IDF said on October 2 that “overnight, terrorist groups launched seven UAVs from several fronts toward Israeli territory. IAF fighter jets, helicopters, and aerial defense systems intercepted all of these threats. In October, more than 100 UAVs launched by terrorists toward Israel were intercepted.”

The 100 drones used by Iranian-backed groups in October that were intercepted are just some of more than 1,000 drones that have been used to target Israel in the last year. For much of 2024, the threat included the launch of one or two drones a day by Hezbollah, usually targeting military sites in northern Israel. In some months, the drone attacks increased, such as in the spring. Some of them were effective.

Recent attacks have been deadlier

They have become more deadly and effective recently. They struck a Golani training base dining hall, killing soldiers near Binyamina. In the Golan, an Iraqi militia drone also killed soldiers. A drone targeted the residence of the Prime Minister. These are just some examples of the rising threat. Drones in October were still a minority of the projectiles used by Hezbollah, as the group launched some 4,000 rockets at Israel.

However, Iraqi groups have relied on drones to threaten Israel, as have the Houthis. These groups have become more inventive as well, trying to get drones to strike Israel from the direction of the Mediterranean or strike from Iraq toward Eilat. There are many angles to defend from, and Israel now faces this challenge.

Israel is also investing in ways to counter drones. The Ministry of Defense held an event in the Negev to check out new technologies from Israeli companies in October. In addition, the ministry is seeking to roll out the Iron Beam laser air defense in 2025. This is good news for Israel.

It comes in the wider context of an announcement about the US Marines completing a live fire drill with the Iron Dome. This is good news because it means more of the world, including the US military, is understanding how essential this system is. US-Israel partnership on the Iron Dome is important.

The US has funded Israeli air defenses for years and the Arrow and David’s Sling air defense systems were jointly developed with the US. Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems developed the Iron Dome in the wake of the 2006 Lebanon War. The system is now getting the credit it deserves with the US Marines. This has implications in the drone war because it is one of many tools Israel uses to thwart drone threats.

However, the drone threat continues to increase. Al-Arabiya reported that Hezbollah claimed to target the area of Palmachim on November 2.

In another incident a Hezbollah drone targeted an industrial area near Nahariya. Arab News reported that drones were also intercepted over the Red Sea over the weekend. In addition videos on social media claimed to show Israeli helicopters sent to intercept drones and other videos showed what were claimed to be footage of drones flying over northern Israel.

The IDF also added around 11 am on November 2 “a short while ago, three UAVs that were launched from the east were intercepted over the Red Sea. No sirens were sounded as the UAVs were intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory.” Around 4:30 pm the IDF noted “a short while ago, sirens were sounded following the identification of a number of suspicious aerial targets that crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory.”

It's clear the drone threat will increase. Hezbollah has lost some of its rocket arsenal due to the war. As the IDF ground operation achieves results, Hezbollah will also want to use drones launched from areas in central and other Lebanon. It also wants support from Iranian proxies in Iraq and elsewhere to take the pressure.

Hezbollah believes its drones can target strategic sites in Israel. The drones are cheap to make and can be made locally, meaning Hezbollah can rely on them, even as it losses its rocket arsenal.

The drones can also be sent to attack via various angles at Israel, such as approaching from the sea. They are small and easy to launch and can be assembled prior to launch, meaning they can be moved around easily in such things as civilian trucks.

The goal of Hezbollah is to leverage its abilities in this regard so that it can continue to confront Israel. It can also do this even as its fighters withdraw from southern Lebanon.