What happened to Iran’s bragging about ‘retaliation’ against Israel?- analysis

Before the US elections on November 5, there were rumors spread on social media that Iran might attack Israel the night of the election.

This might make sense for Iran because the US would be focused on domestic politics, and Iran might feel it can get away with a large and complex multi-front attack on Israel. However, the Iranians didn’t attack. This is despite the fact they have been bragging since late October that they would “retaliate” against Israel for Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.

Iran knows that it is the aggressor. It attacked Israel in April. It attacked again on October 1, raining down 180 ballistic missiles on Israel. Israel retaliated with precision strikes in Iran on October 26.

Iran has been blustering about another round of attacks on Israel since late October. The Tehran regime hasn’t gone completely silent. However, the rumors of an attack on November 5 seemed to vanish. In addition rumors of a “drone swarm” launched from Iraq, Syria and Yemen also vanished after the rumors were spread on IRGC channels on Telegram on November 4.

People in Tehran aren’t completely silent. The deputy commander of the IRGC, Ali Fadavi, put out a threatening statement on November 6. However, he is not the level of officer that one would expect to find serious threats. One would expect more chatter from the Iranians. Where did the chatter go? Iranian state media appears temporarily focused on other issues, such as diplomatic outreach.

Iran media 

What are IRGC media channels such as Tasnim talking about these days? Tasnim has articles about Hezbollah's long-range missiles. Recently, Hezbollah has increased rocket fire targeting long-range targets in Israel. It has also been firing large numbers of rockets at the north.

The IRGC is also focused on a counter-insurgency campaign in Balochistan province in Iran near the Pakistan border. Fadavi, for all his bluster, has been speaking about using Iranian military hospitals to serve the citizens of Iran.

In November, Tasnim also had an article about an Iranian missile expert, Hassan Assan Tehrani Moghaddam, and his history of developing the Fateh tactical ballistic missile for Iran. Moghaddam was an Iranian military officer in the IRGC Aerospace Forces and key architect of Iran's ballistic missile program.

Iran seems to be leaning on Hezbollah to carry out attacks. “Despite the Israeli Air Force's constant intelligence and activity, the resistance [Hezbollah] has increased the pace of its qualitative operations, which fall within the framework of the ‘Khaybar’ series of operations, by directing concentrated and studied strikes at Israeli strategic and security centers, facilities and bases, at a depth of 145 km inside occupied Palestine, and using qualitative missiles and drones,” the pro-Iran al-Mayadeen media said on November 7.

This refers to recent Hezbollah attacks on central Israel using missiles. Tal Inbar, an expert on researcher on missiles, space and drone technology, posted on social media that Hezbollah had used a Fateh 110 in its attack targeting central Israel. The reported use of the Fateh missile may be linked to the fact that IRGC channels are talking about Moghaddam’s role in the missile program that developed this missile.

The question now remains whether Iran will attack Israel directly. Axios had reported that Iran could also strike at Israel from Iraq. The Iraqi militias that are backed by Iran have been in the spotlight over the last weeks. If Iran chooses a smaller attack using proxies it will show that it wants to ratchet down the tensions in the region.

It might do this as it watches how the incoming US president, Donald Trump, chooses to prepare for his return to office. Iran has likely seen reports that Brian Hook, Trump’s Special Representative for Iran, is suspended in the first term and is set to return to the administration.

Media has reported that Donald Trump’s former Iran special envoy is making a comeback as the new administration is formed in transition, likely signaling a strict policy on Iran. “Brian Hook, a top State Department official during the first Trump administration, is expected to lead Trump’s transition team at the State Department, according to three sources familiar with the matter,” CNN reported.

Iran might be reticent to create a crisis, knowing that Hook and others are returning to the administration. They know what happened last time when the US killed Qasem Soleimani. Iran has a keen memory, and they know that they also sought to target US officials from the former Trump administration. Iran knows that memories won’t fade in Washington regarding Iran’s transgressions.