Why ICC decision may mean European arms embargo on Israel - analysis

The reports of the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former minister of defense Yoav Gallant took over the main headlines in international media within minutes, especially in Europe.

Almost all of them displayed a picture of Netanyahu under a headline stating that the ICC had issued an arrest warrant against the prime minister of Israel. Some were punctilious enough to report that an arrest warrant had also been issued for Hamas leader Mohammed Deif, whom Israel has pronounced killed, although there is no certainty about that.

The ICC decision considerably strengthens those who claim that Israel is committing war crimes in the Gaza Strip and who are calling for diplomatic ties with it to be cut off, and for the suspension of arms sales to it and for a boycott of the country.

The ICC, which in the past has issued arrest warrants for Russian president Vladimir Putin, former Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir, and other African leaders, in effect gives an official seal to that claim at the highest level. The reservation that it’s a matter of “a plausible basis” for the suspicions has evaporated.

Several European countries, including Britain and Germany, have announced in the past that they will respect the ruling of the judges in the pre-trial chamber if they issue arrest warrants.

The Netherlands and France announced today that they too would do so. The consequence is that Netanyahu and Gallant will not receive immunity from arrest from these countries if they visit them. This is the first time that leaders of a democratic country have faced arrest warrants of the court, which has 123 member states.

Immediate repercussions

The decision is likely to have several immediate repercussions. One is that the two Israeli politicians will have restricted possibilities of traveling to the countries that are signatories to the Rome Statute that established the ICC.

One hundred twenty-three countries are signatories to the statute; the US and Israel are not among them, but countries that are could prevent the two men from flying through their airspace.

Germany, which expressed criticism of the petition for arrest warrants, saying that the court had no jurisdictionon since Israel has not signed the Rome Statute, has made clear in the past that it will respect the court’s decisions.

It could be that a more far-reaching consequence will be difficulties in exporting arms to Israel, because of the fear (which has now received high-level legal validation) that they will be used to commit war crimes.

Germany, which supplies 30% of Israel’s military equipment, is one of the few countries that have not yet imposed an arms embargo on Israel.

According to reports in the German press, Israel has given Germany a written commitment that German weapons will not be used in activity that breaches international law, but it may be that today’s ruling by the ICC will weaken the German government’s case, if pro-Palestinian organizations petition the court on this matter, as they have in the past.

In Britain, where a constant legal campaign is being conducted against the export of arms to Israel, the decision will strengthen those petitioning against the government’s decision to withhold only a few dozen export licenses, and, among other things, to continue to allow the export of parts for F-35 aircraft.

The current government has changed direction significantly in comparison with the previous, Conservative government, and withdrew British opposition to the issue of arrest warrants.

The prime minister, Keir Starmer, who in the past was involved in hearings of war crimes cases to do with the former Yugoslavia, has said that the international law enforced by the court is a most important principle for Britain.

Other European countries, such as Hungary, have said in the past that they would consider withdrawing from the ICC if it issued arrest warrants against senior Israelis. Hungary even announced in May that it would not enforce arrest warrants if Netanyahu or Gallant visited the country.

Hungary’s prime minister, Victor Orban, said that although Hungary was a signatory to the Rome Statute, it had not ratified the terms of the statute as part of its constitution. Some two hours after the court’s announcement, there are still no official reactions in most European capitals.