Netanyahu rallying support for Lebanon settlement amid right-wing criticism - analysis

Anyone looking to understand how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to sell the settlement agreement with Lebanon to his supporters only needs to tune into Channel 14.

Netanyahu's prominent representatives on the channel, from Yaakov Bardugo to Erel Segal, are already deeply engaged in delivering pro-agreement messages. "Israel will not allow a terror state to arise near the State of Israel. Israel will maintain its freedom of action in Lebanon—everything else is just talk," Bardugo informed viewers today about the upcoming agreement.

On another program, he explained that Israel's settlement move is backed by and under pressure from the IDF General Staff for the purpose of "refreshing forces." On Sunday, Segal said during Channel 14's main edition that "if anything positive has come out of the [Northern Arrows operation] in Lebanon, it's that we're discovering how much Lebanon's other sects want to get rid of Hezbollah."

This messaging extends beyond Channel 14 to social media. On Monday evening, Yinon Magal posted on X/Twitter, listing the benefits of the agreement. Among other things, Magal noted some of the points of the agreement: preventing a vote against Israel in the UN Security Council over the next two months until President-Elect Donald Trump's inauguration, refreshing and strengthening regular and reserve forces, restocking munitions, missiles, shells, and weapons, severing the connection between northern and southern areas, isolating Hamas, and increasing pressure on it regarding the remaining 101 hostages. Magal's post essentially laid out the full talking points Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would use to promote the agreement.

Earlier on Monday, Shlomo Filber, a pollster and former state witness close to the prime minister, posted on X that "Israel needs a break from fighting," elaborating on his reasoning. Filber argued that closing the northern front would facilitate a deal for returning captives and achieving a ceasefire in the south "under the best conditions after Hamas realizes it's left alone, beaten, and nearly destroyed." Filber also reiterated Bardugo's arguments regarding troop rejuvenation as justification for signing the settlement.

Support for Lebanon deal amid limited opposition

According to sources close to Netanyahu, the messaging from his supporters and advocates is part of an effort to soften the right-wing Likud base's response to the settlement. "Netanyahu intends to market the agreement and persuade people of its necessity through diplomatic arguments—the need to achieve a ceasefire ahead of President Trump's inauguration in January and to avoid a severe confrontation with the Biden administration in its final months, as occurred with the Obama administration," said a source.

They added that Netanyahu and his supporters will emphasize the agreement's preservation of the IDF's operational freedom and the achievement of separating the northern and southern fronts. Additionally, the agreement will be framed as a way to provide relief for reservists and as something the IDF itself is pushing for due to a shortage of troops.

Meanwhile, explicit public opposition to the settlement has only come from Otzma Yehudit leader National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who clarified his opposition to the agreement but refrained from threatening to dismantle the government over it, unlike the negotiations for hostage releases and a Gaza ceasefire.

Religious Zionism leader Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has not commented on the matter. Within Likud, only a handful of voices, such as Minister Amichai Shikli and MK Moshe Saada, have expressed reservations or opposition to the settlement in recent days. However, coalition members estimate that Netanyahu will be able to secure cabinet and government approval for any agreement despite these dissenting voices.