Threats on eight fronts: Israel faces post-ceasefire regional security challenges - analysis

As Israel transitions from a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon in the North to enforcing the recently agreed-upon ceasefire, dangers are escalating on other fronts for Israel. These fronts include terrorism in the West Bank, the Houthi threat in Yemen, Iranian-backed terrorists in Iraq, and Iran’s pursuit of revenge and nuclear ambitions.

Lebanon

The IDF has prepared operational plans for various scenarios in Lebanon, especially along the southern border.

While Israel is ready to enforce the ceasefire agreement, it is also preparing for potential provocations from Hezbollah that could escalate into broader conflict. A senior security official cautioned that the tense environment leaves little room for error or miscalculation.

Iran

Despite the attention on Lebanon, Iran remains Israel’s top priority, with threats divided into three main issues. The first is the repeated immediate threats by the Iranian government. Iran has continuously threatened to retaliate against Israel and, except for two incidents where Iran had launched massive missile and drone attacks against Israel, had so far refrained from carrying out these threats.

Reportedly, US air defense forces stationed in Israel have most probably reduced the likelihood of a more significant Iranian retaliation.

Another threat Iran imposes on Israel is its contribution to terrorism and arms smuggling in the Middle East. Iran aims to harm Israel through its ongoing efforts to destabilize the region through proxies and weapons trafficking.

The third issue concerning Iran is its advancing nuclear program. Since Iran continues to enrich its uranium to 60%, newly appointed Defense Minister Israel Katz has been forced to prioritize military readiness for strikes against the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities.

The Gaza Strip

In the Gaza Strip, IDF troops from Division 162 are conducting operations in northern areas, including Beit Hanoun and Jabalya, targeting terror infrastructure and militants.

Meanwhile, Division 99 is securing the newly established Netzarim Corridor, which bisects the Gaza Strip, and conducting operations in Rafah.

The combined military pressures aim to weaken Hamas while pushing for negotiations to release the 101 hostages still held captive in the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023.

The West Bank

IDF operations in the West Bank continue to target terror networks, including Hamas cells directed from abroad. Efforts to curb arms smuggling from Jordan remain a focus amid heightened alerts and difficulties in reallocating forces.

Due to the IDF's success in eliminating Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip, reaching a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and posing a threat to Iran to deter Iranian attacks, the West Bank has become Israel’s main security problem, as The Jerusalem Post reported on Wednesday.

Terrorism in the West Bank has reportedly increased, and Iran has been smuggling weapons to help terrorist groups carry out attacks. The West Bank’s mix of Israeli settlements and Palestinian towns makes it harder for the IDF to maintain control, and solving the problem will require both military action and diplomacy. 

The Jordanian border

Increased incidents along the Jordanian border include arms and drug smuggling, as well as terrorist infiltrations from Syria via Jordan. These threats are becoming more frequent, raising concerns about regional stability.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz partially recognized the issue by approving a new Jordan border fence, the Post reported on Wednesday.

Syria

Threats from Syria include arms smuggling routes from Iran through Iraq to deliver weapons into Hezbollah's hands. Iranian-backed militias and weapons manufacturing infrastructure in Syria remain a threat as well.

Netanyahu has warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad of personal repercussions if Syria continues to assist Hezbollah, and recent IDF actions have openly targeted smuggling routes and terror infrastructures in Syria.

Yemen’s Houthis

In response to drone attacks on Israel, the Israel Air Force has launched strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, including an attack targeting Al-Hodeida port in Operation Outstretched Arm in late July.

Iran’s support for the Houthis terrorist organization has necessitated intelligence gathering and the development of advanced targeting capabilities. The Houthi threat could grow if Iran accelerates its support.

Iraq

Iraq serves as a critical hub for weapons smuggling from Iran to Syria and Lebanon.

Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have also launched drones and missiles at Israel. Israeli officials have warned the Iraqi government that continued attacks will prompt a response, necessitating enhanced IDF intelligence and strike capabilities in the region.

Yonah Jeremy Bob and The Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.