The wild highs and lows of hostage deal talks - and what's left to nail down - analysis

Despite a steady stream of fake news reports that a hostage deal was imminent between August and December, top sources continued to tell The Jerusalem Post that the gaps were too large and no deal was forthcoming.

Some sources even sarcastically disparaged the regular overly optimistic news reports.

These sources turned out to be right: there was no deal over the last several months, and it does not seem that Israel and Hamas were ever even all that close to a deal.

Until recently.

Suddenly, pessimistic sources have flipped and are, for the first time since May and July, saying a deal could be close.

In May and July, Israel likely could have had a deal, but the price would have been an eventual full withdrawal of Gaza and an end to the war, even if the withdrawal might have been split up into stages.

It is also not 100% clear whether Israel would have gotten all of the hostages at the time or just most of them.

But the breakthrough made at the time was that Hamas had dropped its demand that Israel must agree to a permanent ceasefire and a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, including the Philadelphi Corridor, before any talks could take place.

After dropping that demand, Hamas also accepted the process laid out in the deal, by which some 33 to 18 hostages would be freed in phase one in exchange for a lull to the war and the release of Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists held in Israeli jails.

Phase one

On day 16 of phase one, which was set to last for six weeks, talks would begin on the issue of a permanent ceasefire. Hamas then asked for 29 changes, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and attempted in other de-facto ways to re-insert the issue of a permanent ceasefire.

Even back in July there was essentially an agreement that Israel would get some dozens of hostages in phase one of the deal before having to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor.

To get the rest of the hostages, it would later have to withdraw from the corridor.

There was distrust over the terms, and neither Netanyahu nor then-Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar were anxious to cut such a deal at the time, though Mossad Director David Barnea, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) Director Ronen Bar, and then-defense minister Yoav Gallant all pressed the prime minister to go for the deal.

So when Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, allegedly by Israel, and Jerusalem also killed Hezbollah’s military chief, and then Israel started to tear apart the rest of Hezbollah and had a round of fighting with Iran, the talks were put on hold.

Once Sinwar was killed in mid-October, the talks ceased completely as Hamas did not even know who was in charge and how to convey binding decisions to Israel or the hostage talks mediators.

Fundamentally, the sides are still trying to navigate disagreements over which and how many Israeli hostages get released in phase one versus how much of a withdrawal Israel must make at different stages, and most importantly with both sides trying to position themselves on the all-important long-term question of who will run Gaza post-war.

It seems that the current breakthrough is that Hamas is ready to give a smaller number of hostages in exchange for a smaller initial withdrawal commitment from Israel.

In exchange for getting an upfront down payment, it seems Netanyahu is showing some greater flexibility about withdrawals at the later stages of the deal.

Back in July, Netanyahu was floating creative formulas where the IDF might keep a single-digit number of watchtowers on the Philadelphi Corridor to keep a symbolic footprint while withdrawing most IDF forces.

At the time, Hamas was rejecting such formulas. It may be that Hamas may be more open to such face-saving gestures for Netanyahu and Israel, now that the Jewish state thoroughly defeated Hezbollah, likely pushed Iran out of the war, as well as with the fall of the Iran-allied Assad regime, and the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House, given that he leans more heavily to the Israeli side in conflicts with the Palestinians.

An interesting variable remains how many Palestinians will be allowed to return to northern Gaza from southern Gaza and whether “northern Gaza” will include all of that area, or only the bottom two-thirds, while leaving the currently mostly cleared top third still free of Palestinian civilians for the time being.

And then there is just crossing the Rubicon. Both Netanyahu and Hamas’s latest leadership will face domestic attacks for showing weakness if they make concessions for such a compromise deal. Both sides know that once certain concessions are made, they cannot be easily taken back and they give some power to the other side about the post-war framework.

For example, former top Shin Bet official Arik Barbing has told the Post that Hamas, in all scenarios, will leave ambiguity about some remaining hostages it is holding, to ensure it retains leverage. If Hamas manages to do that after Israel has already stopped the war for months and withdrawn from most of Gaza, will Israel really be ready to restart the war as it did after the first deal in November 2023?

In short, a deal is likely imminent for the first time since July, but until Hamas has actually handed over the hostages, everyone will need to continue to hold their breath.