Hamas taking a gamble by stoking West Bank uprising against PA - analysis

Hamas is seeking to inflame the West Bank and create protests against the Palestinian Authority amid major setbacks in Gaza through 14 months of war. Now, it wants to spread the chaos and terror it has sowed there to the West Bank. This has been its plan since October 7. However, now it sees an opportunity.

The spark was the Palestinian Authority’s decision to crack down on terror groups in Jenin, particularly Palestinian Islamic Jihad gunmen. PIJ has grown in power in the West Bank in the last three years, fueled by large numbers of illegal weapons that have been smuggled there.

Most of these are M-16-type rifles equipped with modern sights and other types of modern gear. The rifles now appear daily in videos from Jenin, where PIJ members and other armed groups threaten the Palestinian Authority and Israel.

Israel has had to launch several major operations in the northern West Bank due to the rising terror, increasingly resorting to drone strikes because these areas have become so dangerous.

Now, Hamas is openly calling for more chaos in the West Bank. “Hamas has denounced security operations by the Palestinian Authority forces in the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank,” Iran’s IRNA reported this week.

Hamas's plans in the West Bank

Iranian reporting on this is important because it backs Hamas and PIJ and has sought to smuggle weapons and munitions to the West Bank.

What is Iranian media reporting? “The continuation of the security operations by the Palestinian Authority in Jenin for the eighth consecutive day is a full-scale crime that requires public mobilization to break the siege and support the resistance fighters,” Hamas said in a statement cited by IRNA on Tuesday morning.

The new Hamas statement could lead to civil conflict in the Palestinian Authority. It is one of several shots Hamas has taken at the PA over the last year. Hamas may feel that even as it faces pressure in Gaza or is in talks with Israel via Doha and Cairo, it is time for it to prepare the foundation for an uprising in the West Bank.

If Hamas gets a ceasefire in Gaza, it may feel it has won and will continue to control Gaza. Then Hamas will seek to take over the West Bank as well. This is the long-term plan of Hamas, and also likely the plan of countries that back Hamas, such as Qatar, Turkey, Russia, and Iran.

Russia and Iran, facing setbacks in Syria, might be happy to see chaos descend on the West Bank.

“Hamas called on all movements, groups, and human rights groups to mobilize to confront this security operation that only serves the Zionist army and its failed aspirations to end the resistance in the occupied West Bank. PA security forces raided the Jenin camp, resulting in a fierce clash with resistance fighters,” IRNA reported.

Iran’s state media provided some more details as well. “The events in Jenin camp began with the arrest of Ibrahim Tubasi and Imad Abu Al-Haija by the PA security forces earlier this month. The Jenin Battalion captured some PA vehicles as bargaining chips in demanding their release.”

The report also points out that there are other factions in Tulkarm and other places in the West Bank, setting the stage for a broader Hamas uprising.