Israel entering unstable paradigm on Gaza border - analysis

The Gaza Strip and its periphery appear to have entered into yet another round of slow-burn violence, in which Israel attempts to contain and manage terrorist operations, and Gazans slowly push the boundaries of Israeli tolerance.

For the last 12 days, riots have occurred along the security barrier that divides Gaza and Israel. Riots on the Gaza border are nothing new, and the current riots are far cry from the March of Return in 2018, involving only a hundred to a few hundred people.

These riots feature daily shooting attacks on IDF soldiers on the border. Video published by terrorist organizations and Israeli forces has shown the shooters with pistols, taking cover at the barrier’s cement wall segments.

Even more common has been the barrage of improvised grenades, pipe bombs, and firebombs hurled at soldiers. Improvised explosive devices have been used to damage the security fence and systems.

Terrorist groups have also resumed launching incendiary balloons into Israeli territory, sparking fires after years of hiatus.

IDF responds with drone strikes, as both sides test boundaries

Israeli troops have responded to direct attacks, returning fire against gunmen. However, the IDF has limited its deterrence initiatives to drone strikes on unmanned Hamas military positions. Some may see this as a measured response, meant to slap the terrorists on the wrist but not to inspire further attacks.

Both sides are testing boundaries, and any containment of the rioters and terrorists is an illusion. While no Israeli soldiers have been wounded or killed during the rioting, and many of the terrorist operations have been cartoonish in their tendency to self-harm, the more attacks occur the more likely it becomes that the Gazans may achieve some measure of success.

Just because there have been no Israeli casualties in the current Gaza paradigm doesn’t mean that there won’t be. All it takes is one ill-placed bullet or piece of shrapnel to break the containment illusion.

The residents of the Gaza periphery rightfully will not tolerate a return to daily arson attacks on their land. So far, emergency services have managed to put out all the fires, and winter is coming, but even so one cannot bank on luck that the arson can be contained. The residents may demand action, especially if incendiary devices are replaced by IEDs at the end of those balloons.

Luck and enemy incompetence are not a strategy, and given how the past Gaza paradigms have always escalated, it may be better to get ahead of the curve before disaster strikes.