Israel-Hamas war: Sinwar's disruption of truce deal may turn against him - analysis

While the relentless terror theater persists, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been attempting to alter the established protocol for releasing captives. Despite the resumption of hostilities, the negotiations remain active, though their failure looms as a significant risk.

Hamas, through Qatar and Egypt's mediation, had coordinated a new phase in the negotiations. However, Sinwar disrupted the process before 07:00. IDF forces in Gaza's western region grappled with how to respond to his armed militants. This tension escalated into an exchange of fire, prompting the deployment of fighter jets and subsequent rocket launches.

Sinwar, up until the final moments, seemed to maintain control in the area. Despite the IDF's claims of dominating northern Gaza, soldiers observed Sinwar's operatives swiftly emerging from tunnels right after the ceasefire, a move that bewildered them due to the operatives' precise timing and lack of weapons. Throughout the IDF's ground operations and ceasefire in Gaza, Sinwar regularly communicated with Qatar and Egypt, actively engaging in negotiations with Israel despite the risk of exposing his hideout.

Abu Obeida, the Hamas military wing's spokesperson, has continued to orchestrate a terror narrative, characterized by frequent media communications, surrounding the captives with Nukhba [naval commandos in a special forces unit of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades] operatives, last-minute changes in release timings, and orchestrated release visuals, including handshakes and waves. They even paraded a distressed captive woman and a wheelchair, aiming to soften their otherwise brutal image.

What motivated Sinwar to derail the negotiations

This raises the question: What motivated Sinwar to derail the negotiations? He seems intent on changing the long-standing exchange formula involving babies, children, women, and the elderly, especially as he nears the negotiation's most challenging phase — exchanging soldiers for prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli jails. Despite understanding the significant attention the Bibas family receives from Israeli society and global media, Sinwar declared the murder of the Bibas mother and her children, releasing a video of the grieving father.

Currently, the situation remains fluid, with the potential for rescue depending on both parties' willingness to act. The imminent question is what tomorrow holds, whether the negotiations progress or are further delayed by either side. The IDF faces a decision: to conduct aerial strikes in the coming days while avoiding ground maneuvers to facilitate ongoing negotiations, or to launch a broad, aggressive assault that might hasten an alternative negotiation with Hamas, albeit at a greater cost to the terrorist organization.

Ultimately, the IDF is positioned to proactively target Hamas's core strength, potentially accelerating the negotiations for releasing captives, rather than merely responding to terror attacks and the psychological warfare led by Obeida.