Will Israeli efforts deter the Houthis? - analysis

Israel carried out its second round of airstrikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis on Monday, an important mission as it involved dozens of aircraft, included mid-air refueling, and was a long-range mission. This operation is significant in ways that go beyond just the Houthis; it is good operational real-time training.

Yet, when it comes to the objective of striking back against the Houthis, the question remains whether the group will be deterred.

The IDF said on Sunday that “during an extensive, intelligence-based aerial operation, dozens of IAF aircraft – including fighter jets, mid-air refueling aircraft, and intelligence aircraft struck military targets belonging to the Houthi terrorist regime in the Ras Isa and Hodeidah areas of Yemen. The targets included power plants and a seaport used to import oil, which was used by the Houthi terrorist regime to transfer Iranian weapons to the region, in addition to military supplies and oil.”

The military said that this was in response to recent attacks carried out by the Houthis, specifically three long-range ballistic missile attacks against central Israel: on September 15, September 27, and September 28.

The IDF noted in its statement that “over the past year, the Houthis have been operating under the direction and funding of Iran and in cooperation with Iraqi militias in order to attack the State of Israel, undermine regional stability, and disrupt global freedom of navigation.”

What are their capabilities? 

In addition, the commanding officer of the Israeli Air Force said that “anyone who tries to harm the civilians of the State of Israel – we will reach them.”

There is no doubting Israel’s achievements here; it is sending a message to the Houthis. However, it seems the group’s capabilities remain largely untouched. They have long-range missiles, while the Iranians have helped them stockpile ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones – all over the last decade. The Houthis fought a long war in Yemen against the government – backed by Saudi Arabia and other states and emerged successful. As such, they have experience fighting, particularly against countries with advanced weaponry.

Over the last year, the group has grown more bold: It attacked commercial ships and faced off against navies, including the US Navy, as well as US Central Command. It attacked Israel and shot down US Reaper drones.

And, it is growing in power.

What remains to be seen is whether Israel’s strikes can check the group’s ambitions. It is also a lesson in the use of airpower; even on long-range missions, while the mission may be successful and impressive, it is not clear that air power can achieve everything that is intended.

In Lebanon and Gaza, it is easier to do so because they are geographically closer to Israel. However, longer-range missions, such as the campaign between the wars in Syria, have not succeeded in stopping the Iranian threat. The two rounds of strikes on the Houthis may not succeed in doing so either.