Hard reality of the North: Hezbollah attacks on Israel quadrupled in October

Hezbollah launched four times as many attacks in October as in previous months, data from a security research institute found.

Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 694 of the 1,158 recorded incidents in Israel, according to a report by the Alma Center, which focuses on Israel’s security challenges along the Israel-Lebanon border.

 Since the Lebanese terrorist group initiated its attacks on October 8, 2023, there have been 3,235 incidents, averaging 270 per month. October alone saw 54 deaths in the North from Hezbollah actions: 40 soldiers, 10 Israeli civilians, and four foreign workers.

In October, 54% of Hezbollah’s attacks targeted areas within 5 km. of the border, while 18.6% were directed at IDF troops operating in southern Lebanon. Expanding its range, Hezbollah launched 296 strikes that reached beyond 5 km. into Israel, up from 160 in September.

This marks a significant escalation from August when Hezbollah conducted just 45 extended-range attacks. Alma Center researchers Tal Beeri and Dana Pollak reported that Hezbollah’s increased range and intensified firepower are responses to IDF operations in Lebanon.

Rocket fire has become Hezbollah’s primary tactic against Israel’s civilian areas and a central threat to IDF forces in Lebanon.

“Our data indicates that at least 2,291 rockets and missiles crossed into Israeli territory in October 2024... based on daily IDF reports of large rocket barrages,” the researchers wrote. “Additionally, there were numerous attacks involving multi-rocket launches and isolated missile strikes on Israel not reflected in these numbers.”

Border communities bore the brunt of attacks, including 81 strikes on Metulla, 76 on Misgav Am, 64 on Kiryat Shmona, and 43 on Menara. Meanwhile, more distant locations saw a rise in attacks compared to previous months, including 29 incidents in Safed and Rosh Pina, 21 each in Kiryat and Acre, 21 in Nahariya, 25 in Haifa, 17 in Karmiel, and 12 in Tel Aviv and the Gush Dan area.

Hezbollah's greatest weapon: Drones

“The drone array is Hezbollah’s trump card,” Beeri and Pollak noted. “Drones are central to Hezbollah’s ‘victory narrative,’ especially in light of severe losses over the past three months. UAV incursions force civilians into shelters and engage Israel’s full defense system, creating both a sense of victory and attrition for Hezbollah.”

The researchers anticipate Hezbollah will persist in its attempts to wear down Israel, aiming for a “victory image” both in practical and narrative terms, with heightened activity expected if reports of a diplomatic settlement gain traction.

The report also details an incident last month in which a UAV hit the Golani Brigade base in Regavim, resulting in four IDF deaths and multiple wounded. Another UAV strike on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea caused property damage.

“Hezbollah has struggled to control its combat data recently,” the Alma Center report stated, citing possible communication issues and coordination breakdowns.

Until October 2024, Hezbollah’s statements and claims were largely credible. However, in October, it claimed responsibility for 102 unverified attacks (in addition to the 1,158 documented), including alleged rocket barrages and UAV deployments unconfirmed by the IDF, Alma said.

Conversely, Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for 464 of the verified attacks in October – a notable shift from its previous pattern. There were also discrepancies in Hezbollah’s statements regarding the timing and locations of specific attacks, the institute found.