Is the eastern front becoming serious with their attacks on Israel? - analysis

On Sunday morning, November 17, sirens sounded in areas near Yavne and Nes Ziona. This was a rare occurrence. The sirens were related to a drone threat.

In response to the incident, the IDF said, “A short while ago, sirens were sounded in the areas of Lachish and the Shfela following the identification of a suspicious aerial target that infiltrated into Israeli territory. The public is asked to continue to follow the defensive guidelines of the Home Front Command.”

Later, the IDF said that “following the sirens that sounded in the areas of Lachish and Shfela, a UAV that crossed into Israeli territory from the east was intercepted by the Israel Air Force.”

This is the usual way events unfold with these attacks. Around six in the morning on November 16, there were sirens in Eilat. “Following the sirens that sounded at 05:59 in the area of Eilat, a projectile was identified from the east and it did not cross into Israeli territory. Sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol,” the IDF said.

This raises questions about how this threat can be countered or if it will end in the future.

Houthi attacks

The Houthis claimed they had targeted Eilat. It was unclear if they were referring to the same incident mentioned by the IDF. Usually, when the IDF says “from the east,” this relates to drones launched by pro-Iran militias in Iraq. The difference is not that important because the drone threat from Iraq, Yemen, and Hezbollah is similar. They are all Iranian-backed groups, they often coordinate, and they use similar types of drones.

What matters is that these attacks have increased and come from different directions. The drones are not very large, but if they hit an important site, they can do damage. More importantly, their appearance can cause many people to be sent to shelters. The IDF has to face this complex multi-front drone threat.

The Iraqi militias are keyed into the multi-front war Israel faces. They began their attacks in October 2023 after the Hamas massacre, focusing on US forces in Iraq and Syria and then expanding their attacks to target Israel. In recent months, as Hamas has faced losses and Israel began a ground operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah, they increased their attacks.

Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Mohammad-Kazem Al-e-Sadeq said over the weekend that “the Israeli regime is the source of insecurity and instability in the West Asia region,” according to Iranian state media. “Al-e-Sadeq made the comment on Saturday as he hosted Mohamed al Hassan, head of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and the UN chief’s new special representative for the Arab country.”

Iran said it will continue to support Iraq while also backing militias in Iraq, which undermine the country’s independence and sovereignty. However, Iran claims it is backing Iraq’s “independence and sovereignty.”

HOW CAN the drone threat be countered? In the near term, the Israel Air Force is the main way. This can mean scrambling jets to shoot down the drones or using combat helicopters. The drones could be intercepted at a distance using these methods, but it requires having aircraft in the air. Air defense systems like the Iron Dome also work. However, a drone entering Israeli airspace, such as what happened on November 17, may fly over parts of Israel before being shot down, which can place areas of the country under threat.

Another way to shoot them down in the future would involve laser air defenses. However, as we have learned with the rocket threat, defending is not enough. The drone threat is complex and presents an increasing challenge. It has turned enemy militias into powerful entities because they now possess a kind of instant air force. In the past, Iraq didn’t threaten Israel with its air force; now, its militias do. The drones also have increased range and precision and are not always easy to detect.

It’s possible that if a ceasefire with Hamas or Hezbollah comes into effect, the drone threat could be reduced, as Iran’s proxies and pawns stop their attacks due to Iran’s orders. However, the threat will always be there, awaiting new orders. Iran uses the Iraqi militias to take the pressure off Hezbollah. The Palestinians can now create a drone threat whenever they choose new attacks. For instance, Hamas might choose a date in the future for a wave of attacks in the West Bank and coordinate with Iran or the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

Stopping this threat requires more careful study and thoughtful approaches. Iran is providing drones to Russia – a new way of war. As the drones increase in number and ability, they will present a new front against Israel that must not be ignored. In the long term, it isn’t enough for Israel just to defend itself. On October 7, 2023, Israel learned that being merely on the defensive enabled the enemy to choose the place and time for surprise attacks. The drone threat will exploit this time element in the future. Countering it is an imperative.