The returning threat: How the IDF disabled Hezbollah's ability to rearm - analysis

One of the last acts of the third Lebanon war, which appears to have ended with a ceasefire on November 27, was an IAF strike on a Hezbollah precision-guided missile production site.

This was an important strike, and it was a good way to close the curtain on this two-month war, which began on September 23 with Operation Northern Arrows.

It’s possible the war will start up again, but regardless of what happens, taking out this key Hezbollah capability was important.

Hezbollah has been seeking to acquire more advanced Iranian precision-guided missiles over the last decade. Eventually, over the last five years or so, it sought to move production to Lebanon.

This meant it would have to rely on smuggling via a route that stretches through Syria. Precision-guided munitions, or PGMs, are important because unlike unguided rockets, they can target important sites with precision.

Limiting Hezbollah's ability to return 

Hezbollah has also developed a large number of kamikaze drones that also strike with precision. The IDF has eliminated many senior Hezbollah officers linked to the drone program.

“We degraded Hezbollah’s launch capabilities, struck its strategic assets, eliminated its leadership, and damaged its command and control chain,” IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari said Wednesday. “We have also targeted its ability to rearm and resupply, and we have severely disrupted its ability to carry out its planned infiltration into our territory – a plan it had meticulously prepared to carry out.”

The strike on the PGM site was one of the last acts of this conflict.

“Before the ceasefire came into effect on Tuesday, IAF fighter jets, under the direction of the Intelligence Directorate, struck Hezbollah’s largest precision-guided missile production site in Bekaa’s Janta area,” the IDF said. “The 1.4-kilometer-long underground infrastructure was used to produce surface-to-surface missiles, and components of different weapons, and store a range of precision weapons designated to be used in attacks on Israel.”

The site was “located in an underground compound near the Syrian border,” it said. “Due to its proximity, the site was a central point through which thousands of weapons components and even terrorist operatives were smuggled from Syria and Lebanon.”

Hezbollah’s production capacity for munitions has increased over the last decade with Iranian support, Israel has said.

Iran prefers to move munitions production to Lebanon because Israel has conducted a campaign between the wars to strike Iranian smuggling via Syria.

“In recent years, Hezbollah began building and operating this site with Iranian assistance and cooperation,” the IDF said. “Iranian operatives worked at the site alongside Lebanese Hezbollah terrorists.”

Hezbollah has now lost this site. Nevertheless, it will likely try to increase its PGM production again.

Israel doesn’t want Hezbollah to rearm. The terrorist group will seek to rearm quietly and secretly in the coming months and years.

This means Hezbollah will again be a threat to Israel. The strike on the PGM facility is a setback for it, however, and it provides a window into how it operates.