Will Israel's gov't risk passing judicial reform bill without absolute majority? - analysis

The coalition announced on Sunday that it would hold its weekly meeting of all of the coalition party leaders at 3:00 p.m., then delayed it until 6:00 p.m., and finally postponed it to Monday.

The reason for the delay was prolonged discussions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Justice Minister Yariv Levin, and Education Minister and Ministerial Liaison to the Knesset, Yoav Kisch, over whether or not to bring the controversial Judicial Appointments Committee bill to a vote this week, after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant called publicly on Saturday night to freeze the legislation due the impact of its passing on Israel's national security.

The chief question is, should the coalition pass the bill if it does not have 61 votes?

Despite the bill's status as an amendment to a Basic Law, it only requires a simple majority to pass, as only part of Israel's Basic Laws require an absolute 61-MK majority. However, Netanyahu and coalition leaders reportedly prefer to have the bill pass with a 61-MK majority. The bill will with near certainty be appealed to the High Court, which could review whether or not it constitutes an "unconstitutional constitutional amendment," or whether it is a "negative use of constitutional power."

The fact that the bill passed with 61 MKs in favor will increase its chances of remaining intact, as the government could argue that the High Court's striking it down would be in effect the striking down of the will of the absolute majority.

Coalition likely to have necessary votes

In any case, as of Sunday evening, it looks like the coalition will have the necessary 61 votes. Gallant's call on Saturday evening was echoed by MKs Yuli Edelstein and David Bitan, but the coalition still expects Bitan to vote yes. Edelstein appeared on prime time on Sunday evening in order to call for a legislative freeze, and is likely to join Gallant in abstaining or opposing the law.

But other Likud members who voiced their preference for a legislation freeze, Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter and MK Eli Dallal, both clarified on Sunday that they will still respect the party's decision to vote yes.

The momentum that Gallant's speech created thus seems to have fizzled out, and the coalition could, and likely will, bring the vote forwards already on Monday's plenum agenda.

However, Gallant's call that the law's passing could affect national security cannot be taken lightly, and Netanyahu cannot afford to be seen as someone who is willing to risk this.

Reports on Sunday evening indicated that President Isaac Herzog was involved in attempting to broker a last-minute compromise over the Judicial Appointments Committee that will be acceptable to National Unity chairman Benny Gantz, who indicated on Sunday that he would enter talks willingly as long as the security damage is avoided.

Nevertheless, at this point, it still seems unlikely at such short notice that the maximum that Levin will be willing to give is the minimum that Gantz is willing to accept.

Therefore, unless Netanyahu pulls a rabbit out of his hat and surprises everyone, two realistic scenarios remain.

First, Netanyahu uses the ladder that Gallant provided him to climb down from the limb on which he is sitting and delay the legislation until after the Knesset returns from its Passover recess on April 30. This could calm the situation on the streets and Gantz would likely enter negotiations during the recess.

Second, the bill comes up for a vote and passes, likely with at least 61 votes, and the current situation persists, with the sides unlikely to compromise or negotiate.