Religiosity and views on judicial reform are strongly correlated - study

Israeli society is facing a deepening religious divide as tensions escalate amid ongoing protests against the judicial reform proposal, according to a study conducted by Dr. Itamar Yakir, a researcher in the Center of Governance and the Economy at the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI).

The study showed that the percentage of secular Israeli Jews with negative views of the reforms increased, while the orthodox and ultra-orthodox Israeli Jews saw a rise in those regarding the reform as positive.

According to the study, the reforms and subsequent protests have brought long-standing religious and ethnic conflicts to the forefront, creating a potentially destabilizing situation. 

According to Yakir, religious disputes have intensified over recent months, with the coalition government's composition fueling the flames. The coalition, comprising national-religious and ultra-orthodox parties alongside the Likud, set the stage for heightened tensions.

Historical grievances fan the flames

As the reform gained momentum, triggering significant changes in religion-state dynamics and granting preferential treatment to religious and ultra-Orthodox groups, the situation became more heated. Contentious issues such as the Conscription Bill, the proposed Basic Law on studying Torah and debates over Shabbat work further contributed to the growing conflict. Additionally, religious-right circles sought to address historical grievances related to Supreme Court verdicts on religious and state matters.

To gain insight into public opinion on the reform, the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the IDI conducted a series of surveys from January to April 2023. These surveys analyzed support for the reform among different groups based on their level of religiosity. The findings indicated a strong correlation between religious affiliation and attitudes towards the reform.

In January 2023, respondents were asked about their opinion on the suggested judicial reform. The survey revealed a significant influence of religiosity on support for the reform. Secular Jews displayed the least support, with only 16% considering the reform as "very good" or "pretty good." In comparison, 22% of the traditional non-religious, 48% of the traditional-religious and 66% of the orthodox and ultra-orthodox viewed the reform favorably.

According to the study, as time passed, the religious divide regarding the reform widened further. By April, the percentage of secular and traditional non-religious Jews with negative views of the reform increased, while all other groups saw a rise in those regarding the reform as positive. According to Yakir, these results underscore the significant role religiosity plays in shaping attitudes towards the reform, transcending political affiliations.

The surveys also investigated support for specific components of the reform, including the override clause legislation, cancellation of the standard of unreasonableness and changes to the judge selection committee. Across all components, a positive correlation with religiosity was observed. The more religious the respondent, the higher their likelihood of supporting the reform and its specific elements.

Education levels also correlate with reform attitudes

However, when considering educational levels, the gap between religiosity and opposition to the reform diminished. Respondents with a higher education level, particularly those with an academic background, were more inclined to oppose certain aspects of the reform, such as the repeal of the standard of unreasonableness and changes to the judge selection committee.

The surveys also explored public concerns about the potential consequences of the reform with respondents exhibiting varying levels of concern based on their religiosity. Generally, less religious individuals expressed greater worries about negative outcomes across different scenarios, while religious respondents displayed a lesser degree of concern.

Yakir's findings shed light on the profound religious divisions within Israeli society and the potential threat they pose to social stability. The intensity of religious conflicts, particularly in conjunction with ideological-political convergences, has reached unprecedented levels. Recognizing and addressing this potential threat is essential for effective leadership.

Moreover, the stark differences in the assessment of the reform's potential costs emphasize the need for comprehensive understanding. Efforts should be made to clarify the inherent costs associated with the reform, as public perceptions of these costs can significantly influence attitudes towards its adoption.