Poll predicts 8 Seats for Yoaz Hendel's new right-wing party

A new right-wing liberal party under the leadership of former MK and minister Yoaz Hendel could potentially secure eight seats, according to a new poll, conducted for Maariv. The survey findings indicate that a party led by the former Minister of Communications would indeed secure eight seats. In comparison, the Likud and the National Union Party would combine for 26 seats, while Yesh Atid would recieve 14 and Yisrael Beytenu 6 seats. In this scenario, the current coalition, excluding Hendel's party, would hold 52 seats, while the opposition would only have 60 mandates, which wouldn't allow them to establish a coalition.

Digging deeper into the results, it becomes evident that the majority of support for the new party comes from National Union Party voters, accounting for 4 out of the 8 seats. Additionally, there is backing from those who don't align with existing parties (2 seats from those who wouldn't vote or chose "another party"). Notably, the Likud Party doesn't contribute to the New Hope Party's support. Nevertheless, the poll's editors urged caution, given the small sample size, suggesting that substantial fluctuations can be expected in subsequent polls.

A split in the National Union Party?

The survey also explored an alternate scenario in which the National Union Party divides into two factions for the next elections: one led by Benny Gantz and former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot and the other by former minister Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope Party. In this hypothetical situation, New Hope would secure 3.3% of the vote, equivalent to 4 seats, teetering near the blocking percentage threshold. These seats would primarily come from National Union Party voters, with additional support from the Likud, Yesh Atid (one mandate each), and undecided voters (an extra mandate).

The survey was conducted by Dr. Menachem Lazar on September 20-21, with 507 respondents participating, representing the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, including Jews and Arabs. Data collection was carried out using the Panel4all internet panel of respondents, with a total sampling error of 4.3%.