Israel election poll: Netanyahu rises after High Court verdicts, al-Arouri killing

The Likud party and the current government have gained two seats this week in a theoretical ‘held-today’ election, according to a new Maariv poll released on Friday. Were an election held today, Likud would win 19 mandates, bringing the coalition as a whole to 46 out of the Knesset’s 120. 

Belief in the suitability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his office also jumped from 2%, to 34%. National Unity leader Benny Gantz still outpaces Netanyahu by 14%, however, with 48% of Israelis deeming him suitable for the prime ministership. 

Asked who is more suitable to serve as prime minister, Netanyahu or Gantz, 64% of Likud voters say Netanyahu, and 21% say Gantz. Among voters of the Unity camp, Gantz wins 98%, and among Yesh Atid voters, Gantz receives 90%, while Netanyahu receives 1%.

The slight jump in popularity for Netanyahu and his party comes after senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri’s assassination in Beirut, as well as the two dramatic rulings of Israel’s High Court of Justice last week. 

The Court, which had been the focus of national attention for the nine months preceding October 7, overturned the signature achievement of the judicial reform effort, and thus restored the ‘reasonableness standard’ to the Israeli judicial toolbox, following the Knesset’s narrow vote in July 2023 to abolish it. 

Voters split on whether govt is working with all its might to return hostages

The Court also ruled that the government’s “Incapacitation Law,” detailing the particular circumstances in which a government official can be deemed incapable of performing their duty, will only come into effect following the installment of a new government. 

The Court determined that the law presented a conflict of interest for Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud. Netanyahu, the justices concluded, could be motivated to support the change to avoid a potential removal from office under existing law. 

In the same survey, voters were asked whether they believe that the government is working with all its might to return the hostages held captive in Gaza. The survey found that 42% of Israelis believe it is, compared to 39%, who believe the effort has lessened. Among just coalition party voters, 58% believe that it has lessened. 

The poll, conducted on January 3-4, 2024 by Lazar Research in collaboration with Panel4All, surveyed 519 people, who make up a representative sample of Jewish and Arab Israelis 18 and over. The margin of error is 4.3%.