Netanyahu makes slight gains against Gantz, Lapid in new election poll

Benny Gantz’s National Unity party has lost two seats in a theoretical election, while Prime MInister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has picked up two new ones, according to a new Maariv poll, conducted by ‘Leyzer Research, in partnership with Panel4All. 

Meanwhile, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party continues to go down in popularity, winning a theoretical 12 seats, down from its projections last year. 

Among smaller parties there were also gains and losses: MK Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu faction and far-right Otzma Yehudit each gained one seat, while the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) party United Torah Judaism lost one. 

All in all, the coalition gained two seats, adding up to 46 total, while the opposition went down to 74, still making up a sizable majority of the Knesset’s 120. 

The new poll comes against the backdrop of reports that negotiators are approaching a hostage deal, a statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel ‘will not release thousands of terrorists’ and that the war against Hamas will continue ‘until victory,’ a controversial conference to advocate for the return of Israeli settlements in Gaza, and a continuing war of attrition in the North.

20% of Likud voters prefer Gantz to Netanyahu, as do almost all opposition voters

The survey also found that about half of respondents (49%) consider Benny Gantz more suitable to be prime minister than Benjamin Netanyahu (32%). This is a slight dip for Gantz, however, who received 51% of respondents the last time this question was asked, last week, while Netanyahu has held steady at 31%.

Likud voters still prefer Netanyahu, 65% to 20%, with 19% saying they don’t know, while the preference for Gantz is almost universal among opposition voters, with 96% of National Unity voters preferring the former general, as do 92% of voters for Yesh Atid.

Nearly half of Israelis (45%) support having elections immediately if a ceasefire occurs in Gaza. This is the position of 80% of Yesh Atid voters, a majority of National Unity voters (57%), and about a quarter of Likud voters.

Meanwhile, 28% of Israelis support keeping the status quo as is— this position is, unsurprisingly, particularly common among Likud voters, 56% of whom support keeping the status quo. 17% of Israelis support a unity government with the participation of Yesh Atid and Israel Beiteinu.

The poll was conducted between January 31 and February 1, with 511 respondents who constituted a representative sample of the adult population in Israel, Jewish and Arab. The margin of error is estimated at 4.3%.