Israel's municipal elections: Which vote will impact national politics? - analysis

The campaigns leading up to Tuesday’s municipal elections largely flew under the radar, as Israel remains focused on its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, conflict against Hezbollah on its northern border, over 100,000 citizens who are still displaced, and numerous other security, economic, welfare, and social issues, not to mention thousands of reservists still called  up.

Municipal elections matter first and foremost for voters in every city and town, as it is the municipality that cares for most facets of daily life, from garbage collection to zoning plans. But a number of the elections also have political ramifications on the national level. Here are a few to look out for.

The ultra-Orthodox cities – Bnei Brak, Elad, Bet Shemesh, and Beitar Illit

Largely unnoticed by the general public, during the last few months, Israel’s haredi political scene gushed with vicious maneuvering over control of the largest haredi cities, listed above.

There are three central parties in Haredi politics – the Sephardic haredi Shas Party; the Lithuanian Degel Hatorah Party; and the Hassidic Agudat Yisrael Party. The latter two have run together in elections since the 1990s under the name United Torah Judaism (UTJ).

Agudat Yisrael itself is divided into several Hassidic groups, each of which has one member of Knesset – Gur, Belz, Viznitz, and a collection of smaller groups collectively known as Shlomei Emunim.

The series of earthquakes began when Lithuanian haredi leader Rabbi Dov Lando refused to go through with a deal that was hashed out ahead of the previous municipal election between Degel Hatorah and Shas in Elad in 2018: the city’s haredi majority would elect a representative of Degel Hatorah, and in return in 2023 (the current election, which was delayed to 2024 due to the war) would elect a representative of Shas.

When Lando chose instead to support a representative of Agudat Yisrael, all hell broke loose, and agreements between the different parties regarding other cities also collapsed. Agudat Yisrael itself splintered and each group began to act independently and ally itself with either Shas or Degel Hatorah.

Each of the four cities above has its unique circumstances. For example, a split in the haredi vote allowed for non-haredi Dr. Aliza Bloch to win in Beit Shemesh in the previous election – and the different haredi groups in the city need to come together to overcome her incumbency. In Bnei Brak, Shas’ Uriel Busso, who is also the current Health Minister, is facing off against Agudat Yisrael’s Hanoch Zeibart, who served as the city’s mayor between 2023-2018.

However, Busso is facing a legal challenge over his candidacy, as he is a resident of Petah Tikva and his opponents are unconvinced that he moved his place of residence to Bnei Brak before the campaign, as he claimed he did.

Still, the common denominator in the four major haredi cities listed above and in other cities with significant haredi majorities, such as Ashdod, is that traditional alliances have been broken and new ones formed.

This has affected politics on the national level. Degel Hatorah and Agudat Yisrael in recent weeks have held their weekly party meetings separately. If the two decide to split ahead of the next national election after 30 years of cooperation, each will be in danger of falling under the electoral threshold and not joining the Knesset. Haredi influence in the Knesset could be affected.

However, crises also create opportunities, and these municipal elections could lead to new realignments, such as Agudat Yisrael splitting in two, with some joining Degel Hatorah and others joining Shas. This could rejuvenate the haredi base and maintain and perhaps enlarge its power in the national arena. Either way, haredi publicists are describing these elections as critical.

Tel Aviv

At first glance, the municipal election in Tel Aviv garnered a yawn. Incumbent mayor Ron Huldai, who has been in the position for 25 years, is running yet again. His challenger this time around is former Yesh Atid MK, economy minister, and IDF general Orna Barbivay. One would need a microscope to find the differences in ideology between the two. Barbivay’s slogan has been simply that 25 years was too much for one candidate – she hasn’t even tried to compete with Huldai on policy matters.

However, the battle between the two bears some significance.

 Huldai is associated with the Left, as he attempted in 2021 to run in the general election alongside Labor chairperson Merav Michaeli. The Left – and Labor especially – keeps on shrinking in polls, and Michaeli, who was heavily criticized for refusing to join with Meretz ahead of the previous election, announced months ago that she would no longer run for the party leadership. On Sunday the party announced that it would choose a new leader on May 28.

Yet according to fellow Labor MK Gilad Kariv, Michaeli is still finding it hard to part with the Labor brand – and has blocked attempts to begin the technical processes of enlarging and merging with other political forces. Kariv and others are pushing to reorganize the left-wing camp to attempt a merger of Labor, Meretz, and other groups to maximize its power in a future election.

Huldai in some ways represents Michaeli’s stance – a fading figure who insists on maintaining the “establishment” of Left-wing institutions.

A victory for Barbivay, however, would signal the “changing of the guard” in the Left, and reflect changes in Israeli society in general. First, Tel Aviv would be electing someone from a centrist party, albeit from its left flank.

This indicates the general Israeli public’s gravitation rightwards. Second, her victory would bring down a symbol of the “old Left” – and this could speed up the process of forming a new-left wing camp.

Finally, it would serve as a major victory for Yesh Atid, which announced years ago that it viewed the municipal elections as a strategic arena with which to consolidate its base. This is especially important for the party, as current polls have it down from 24 current seats to between 14-16.

Israeli-Arab cities and townships

Some 85 Israeli-Arab cities and towns will vote on Tuesday, and the municipal election is “the event” in Israeli-Arab politics, according to Dr. Muhammed Khalaily, Researcher for the Israel Democracy Institute’s Arab Society in Israel program

There are several reasons for this.

First, municipalities were the largest employers in many towns, and therefore were an employment option for educated residents, Khalaily explains.

Second, some 67 mayors from Arab-Israeli cities and towns automatically become members of a body called the National Committee for Arab Local Authorities in Israel, which in turn is represented in the High Follow-Up Committee for Arab citizens of Israel, an extra-parliamentary umbrella organization that represents Arab citizens of Israel at the national level. While not directly influencing the Arab parties in the Knesset, becoming mayor gives Arab citizens influence on the national level, and often serves as an entry level into national politics, Khalaily said.

Third, many Arab Israelis feel that they are marginalized at the national level and that in local elections they have more influence on matters connected to their sector.

Fourth and finally, government plans in the past decade have earmarked significant funds for the Arab local authorities, and this “big money” helped in developing infrastructure and creating real change.

Khalaily said that there were three topics that nearly all of the Arab authorities had in common.

The first was the plague of violence that has become an enormous challenge, and which Arab Israelis are demanding that their representatives take on with full force. The violence has even affected the election itself, as in several authorities there is only one candidate – which is indicative of possible threats against contenders.

The second is zoning plans, as Arab towns have very small jurisdictions, which force many residents to build illegally vertically since there is not enough room to expand. They end up spending fortunes on fines, and this is a problem that needs to be addressed, Khalaily said.

The third, according to Khalaily, is the education system. The Arab sector by and large hopes and believes that high-level education will eventually lead Arab towns to prosper.