The ins and outs of Gideon Sa'ar's political bombshell - analysis

Former longtime Likud MK, education minister, and justice minister Gideon Sa’ar dropped a political bombshell on Tuesday evening.

In a speech at a conference of his New Hope Party’s supporters, which was convened in order to commend the party’s success in the recent statewide municipal elections, Sa’ar made two announcements: New Hope will officially break off from Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party, and he (Sa’ar) demands a seat in the war cabinet.

That the two announcements were made together was not a coincidence, according to a spokesperson for Sa’ar’s fellow party member Ze’ev Elkin. Sa’ar wanted to stress that the driving factor behind the decision to split with Gantz was his criticism of Gantz’s and MK Gadi Eisenkot’s moderating influence over the war cabinet.

Sa’ar believes that it is time for the IDF to ramp up operations in Gaza and invade Rafah – and, unlike Gantz and Eisenkot, he is unwilling to consider the option of a Palestinian state as an eventual outcome of the war. Sa’ar feels that Gantz was not representing his positions in the war cabinet, and Sa’ar wants to make his voice heard.

Sa’ar understood that the war cabinet is perhaps the only political body that is actually calling the shots and making consequential decisions regarding the war. Since National Unity joined the government on October 11, the statutory security cabinet, which is responsible for defense-related decisions during normal times, ballooned to 16 members.

Other than deciding on the war’s main goals at the start of the war, the security cabinet has mostly been uninfluential. Its meetings have been marred by leaks, shouting matches, and aggressive criticism of the defense establishment.

The war cabinet, on the other hand, has been relatively discrete, and its members describe its meetings and decision-making processes as effective and professional. Only by joining the war cabinet can a minister make a real difference in the direction of the war.

All of the major political players understand this. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir are pining to join the war cabinet, and are blaming it for what they perceive to be the war’s shortcomings; Ben-Gvir, smelling an opening, announced that if Sa’ar is offered a spot, he will demand one as well. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered a spot in the war cabinet to Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid in an (unsuccessful) attempt to lure him into the government, and Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman has said that he would agree to join the coalition only if he is given a spot in the war cabinet as well.

What are the immediate consequences of Sa'ar breaking off? 

THE DECISION to allow Sa’ar to join the war cabinet notwithstanding, what are the immediate consequences of his secession from National Unity?

From the Likud’s perspective, the move was a positive development, as it weakened both Gantz’s and Ben-Gvir’s leverage over Netanyahu. Should Gantz decide to leave the government in the near future, Netanyahu will still enjoy a 68-MK majority, and if Ben-Gvir decides to jump ship as well – which could happen if, for example, Sa’ar receives a spot in the war cabinet and Ben-Gvir does not – Netanyahu will still enjoy a 62-MK majority.

This is a very slight majority and could create headaches for Netanyahu, but the fact that even if both Gantz and Ben-Gvir leave the government the prime minister will still enjoy a majority means that both have lost the ability to threaten the government’s existence.

Sa’ar himself is now unlikely to leave the government, even if he is not awarded a spot in the war cabinet. This is because Sa’ar has said repeatedly that he opposes going to an election during wartime.

In addition, it is fair to assume that he will now attempt for a period to differentiate himself from both National Unity, on the one hand, and the Likud, on the other, as well as increase his presence in the media, in order to solidify his position as a leading option for right-wing voters who do not support Netanyahu.

The Knesset heads to a Passover break at the beginning of April and returns in mid-May. It is the Knesset that technically brings down a government when it passes a bill to disperse itself – and the chances of this happening prior to the Passover break have moved from slim to nearly zero. Netanyahu’s government thus has at least two months to breathe relatively easily.

Sa’ar himself has his work cut out for him. A series of polls on Wednesday gave him five or six seats, a surprisingly low number considering the hype and the high numbers that such announcements usually create at first. For example, the first polls after Sa’ar broke away from the Likud and formed New Hope in December 2020 gave him double-digits (he ended up receiving six seats in the subsequent election).

Sa’ar, however, is not worried. Polls prior to his split from Gantz had him at just four seats, and he was also buoyed by the grassroots support for his party that was evident in the recent municipal elections. According to Elkin’s spokesperson, New Hope fielded candidates in 70 municipalities. Its candidates won the mayorship in 10 of them, and also won 118 spots on city councils, putting it in the top five out of the parties that fielded candidates in multiple municipalities.

Sa’ar’s ceiling is high, and his performance in a future election will mostly depend on how many other right-wing figures enter the arena.

In an attempt to draw in voters to the Right of Gantz but who do not want to see Netanyahu at the helm, Sa’ar even renamed his party as Hayamin Hamamlachti, which translates roughly as the “The Statesmanlike Right.” The label of “statesmanlike” is a copy of Gantz’s “Hamahane Hamamlachti,” roughly “The Statesmanlike Camp” – the notorious difficulty of translating the word “mamlachti” led Gantz to eventually choose to go in English with “National Unity” – and is intended as a contrast to Netanyahu, as it implies that Netanyahu does not act in the state’s best interest. Secondly, the label “Right” is meant to differentiate Sa’ar from Gantz, who went with “camp,” implying that Gantz’s party is a home for centrists as well.

But above all, perhaps the most notable aspect of Sa’ar’s announcement is his willingness to make game-changing, decisive moves in the national arena, which in and of itself could be perceived as a refreshing contrast to Netanyahu’s famous preference to delay decisions as long as possible, and a contrast to Gantz’s reluctance to make a political move after joining the government in October.

Sa’ar has a proven record on this matter, which includes his breakaway from the Likud in 2020, and his decision early on in the 2022 election campaign to join forces with Gantz.

This week as well, Sa’ar exhibited a decisiveness along with a dash of political cunning that many Israelis may eventually come to view as good ingredients for a future prime minister.