Who might be the next defense minister?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant must be replaced in the ministerial position. However, according to sources in the Likud, speaking to Maariv on Monday, he is still afraid to see it through.

This comes against the backdrop of tensions between the prime minister and defense minister reaching an all-time high and which have only worsened following a series of leaks to the media about their head-to-head stances on a potential hostage deal.

According to sources within the Likud, out of all the possible ways of removing Gallant, the best move in terms of public opinion would be to bring Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope-United Right Party into the coalition, which has already been discussed within the Likud with much positivity.

According to Likud sources, expanding the coalition by four mandates would strengthen Netanyahu’s bloc within it against far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who recently caused a crisis within it and is regularly suspected of planning to quit for his own political considerations.

Therefore, Sa’ar and his party’s possible accession would theoretically send a message of stability and strengthen the coalition's current position against those in the opposition who seek to recruit defectors in an attempt to bring about elections and a new coalition of the center-left bloc.

The addition of the New Hope-United Right Party to the coalition—a party which, according to the polls, is worth between two to three mandates—would strengthen the Likud bloc and weaken the moderate right before the next elections.

Waiting for Netanyahu's green light

Until now, the idea of bringing in New Hope-United Right and reshuffling the ministerial portfolios has merely been an idea and has not progressed to the implementation stage. According to the Likud officials, Sa’ar and his party have yet to be contacted by any of Netanyahu’s representatives.

Several Likud representatives have recently held informal talks with Sa'ar and his party members to gauge their positions and the feasibility of the move if and when it matures and receives a green light from the prime minister.

The dispute over the Defense Ministry

The expansion of the coalition would involve reopening the section in the coalition deal pertaining to the allocation of ministerial portfolios. According to the idea currently floating around in the Likud, a ministerial portfolio reshuffle, which would accompany Sa’ar and friends joining the coalition, may justify from a public point of view the removal of Gallant from the defense portfolio.

This would not be an impeachment, as Gallant would be offered another government portfolio. However, sources who spoke with Netanyahu told Maariv that they were under the impression that the prime minister is indeed interested in replacing Gallant in the Defense Ministry but apparently does not intend to offer the important senior position, especially amid war, to the chairman of the New Hope-United Right.

“Netanyahu and his close circle still do not trust Sa'ar and do not believe in him as a reliable and safe political partner,” two Likud sources said. “Netanyahu believes that the appointment of Sa'ar to the position of defense minister would cause outrage within the Likud and would cause a number of senior officials to rebel against the move, asking why he appointed Sa'ar and not Israel Katz or Avi Dichter or Yariv Levin.”

Those who support the move within the Likud said they recommend offering Saar "a senior portfolio that is not a security portfolio.”

So who should be Israel’s next defense minister?

Among those mentioned as potential candidates for the defense ministerial portfolio in the talks that took place recently in the circle close to Netanyahu, the name of MK and former IDF chief-of-staff Gabi Ashkenazi stood out.

Ashkenazi's name came up as a possible candidate for the position at the early stages of the government’s formation. Sources in Likud claim that Netanyahu considering offering Ashkenazi the defense portfolio was one of the reasons for the tensions that arose between Gallant and Netanyahu in early 2023.

Those close to Netanyahu offered to replace Gallant with Ashkenazi again during the judicial reform crisis, at the height of which Gallant came out publicly against the reform and was fired by Netanyahu in a public statement but was ultimately kept in the position.

Now it turns out that shortly after the outbreak of the war, at the end of October 2023, Netanyahu invited Ashkenazi to a meeting that took place at IDF General Staff Headquarters in Tel Aviv.

There, according to the sources privy to the talks, Netanyahu was close to offering Ashkenazi the senior position, and all those who were involved in organizing the meeting between the two were sure that the offer would indeed come up. However, the meeting between Netanyahu and Ashkenazi ended without a job offer.

On the same day, October 23, the Prime Minister’s Office responded to reports of the meeting, saying, “Prime Minister Netanyahu held one meeting with Gabi Ashkenazi as he has met with many former senior officials in the security establishment. Ashkenazi will not serve in any role, and any publication suggesting otherwise is false.”

Later, during the war, the two held telephone conversations, and again Netanyahu did not offer Ashkenazi any concrete proposal.

According to sources close to Netanyahu, he has not made contact with Ashkenazi in recent months. Still, when the tension between Netanyahu and Gallant reached new heights recently, the idea of ​​offering Ashkenazi the defense portfolio was brought up again.

Sources in Likud estimate that Netanyahu postponed such a political upheaval until the potential expansion of the coalition on the distant horizon and the resulting reshuffling of ministerial portfolios, which would only occur after the looming threat of an Iranian attack, which would hopefully not cause an overall regional security deterioration.

Only then—according to Likud officials—will Netanyahu be free to deal with the political issues at hand.