Netanyahu's Likud gains seats as corruption trial, Syria action unfolds - poll

If elections in Israel were to take place this week, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition would not grow stronger, however his party, the Likud, would gain three seats, according to the latest polling data from Maariv.

The poll was conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with Panel4All and comes amid Netanyahu's testimony in his corruption trial proceedings, the fall of the Assad regime, and the destruction of its military by the IDF.

The Likud's gains in the current poll remain steady even with the introduction of a party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett. In this scenario, the Likud increases by three seats to 23, closely approaching Bennett’s party, which falls by three seats—from a high of 27 last week to 24 in this poll.

If new Knesset elections were held today, Likud would secure 25 seats, an increase from 22 in the previous poll. National Unity would remain steady with 19 seats, while Yesh Atid would drop slightly to 14 from 15. Yisrael Beiteinu would maintain its 14 seats, and The Democrats would rise to 13 from 12. Shas would gain one seat, reaching 10, while Otzma Yehudit would increase to 8 from 7. United Torah Judaism would drop to 7 seats from 8, and both Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would hold steady at five seats each.

The coalition bloc would receive 50 seats, unchanged from the previous poll, while the opposition bloc would maintain its 60 seats. The Arab parties would also continue to hold ten seats. However, Religious Zionism (2.4%), State Right (0.6%), and Balad (2%) would fail to pass the electoral threshold.

The Democrats make gains

Another notable result is the strengthening of The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, which has reached 13 seats. However, this growth comes from the center-left bloc.

When asked how they would vote if a new party led by Naftali Bennett were to run in the next elections, respondents indicated that Bennett's party would receive 24 seats, down from 27 in the previous poll. 

Likud would increase to 23 seats from 20, while National Unity would remain unchanged at 13 seats. Yesh Atid would hold steady with 11 seats, and The Democrats would maintain ten seats. Shas would secure eight seats, United Torah Judaism, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Otzma Yehudit would each remain at seven seats, while Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would continue with five seats each.

In response to a separate question regarding the impact of Netanyahu's early testimony in his trial, 16% of respondents said it changed their opinion of him positively, 15% said it changed their opinion negatively, and 69% reported no change in their opinion. Among Netanyahu’s supporters, the positive effect of the testimony (37%) outweighed its negative effect among opponents (22%), which helps explain Likud’s rise in this week’s seat distribution.

When asked whether the fall of the Assad regime was good or bad for Israel, 42% of respondents believed it to be good, 8% considered it bad, and 50% said it was too early to tell. Among coalition party voters, 55% viewed the developments in Syria as beneficial for Israel, while only 7% believed the regime's collapse was detrimental. In contrast, opposition voters were more cautious, with 34% seeing the fall as positive, 10% as negative, and 56% stating it was too early to form an opinion.

The poll, conducted on December 11-12, included 500 respondents representing the adult population of Israel, both Jews and Arabs aged 18 and above. The margin of error for the survey was ±4.4%.