Israelis and Palestinians overestimate each other's desire to fight

A report detailing polling results conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University (IPCRM) found that each side of the Israel/Palestinian conflict expected the other to prefer to wage war at higher rates than they really do. The poll was published late last month.

"The expectations of both sides are that the other side will start a 'definitive war' or 'armed struggle,' the survey notes. In fact, "the largest percentage of Palestinians and Israeli Jews, 44% and 52% respectively think the majority on the other side prefers to use force."

Statistics of Palestinians and Israelis wanting peace

While, collectively, each side overestimates the aggression of the other side, the real figures are still discouraging. According to the research, a large proportion, 40%, of Palestinians do prefer to "wage an armed struggle." On the Israeli side, 26% wish to "wage a definitive war against the Palestinians."

Still, the difference between expectations and reality is large enough to be significant. Additionally, each side, collectively, underestimates the other's desire to come to a peace agreement. While 19% of Israelis believe Palestinians wish to come to a peace agreement, this is true of 31% of Palestinians. 

On the other side, 22% of Palestinians agree that the Israelis wish to come to a peace agreement while the poll indicates that, in reality, 30% want a peace agreement.

Proceeding, 8% of Israelis believe Palestinians wish to maintain the status quo while 8% of Palestinians really do and 6% of Israelis say that Palestinians wish to wage an unarmed struggle while 16% really do.

Furthermore, 21% of Palestinians believe Israelis wish to maintain the status quo while 12% of Palestinians really do and 10% of Palestinians believe that Israelis wish to annex the territories while 9% really do.

"A majority on Israeli Jews and Palestinians, 84% and 61% respectively, think it has no (peace) partner on the other side," the research survey reads. "This represents a 14-point increase among Israeli Jews and 11-point decrease among Palestinians compared to our findings in September 2020."

Additionally, the vast majority of both sides believe the other would never accept them having an independent state.

Also, both Israelis and Palestinians agree that the Palestinian Authority (PA) is incapable of reaching and implementing any sort of peace agreement with Israel. Furthermore, the largest percentages of both sides expect that after Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the PA, is no longer in office, there will be armed conflict between Palestinian factions.