ISIS attack and US raid show terror group still dangerous - analysis

US Central Command said over the weekend that a senior ISIS leader was killed and four US service members were wounded during a helicopter raid in northwestern Syria.

The report said that the US, with its Syrian Democratic Forces partners, raided ISIS in Syria. An explosion, apparently triggered by the target of the raid, resulted in four US service members being wounded, and a working dog was also wounded. The ISIS leader’s name was given as Hamza al-Homsi. In another incident, ISIS carried out a major massacre in Syria near Palmyra, showing the threat that they still pose.

The first incident appears to be a rare case of US soldiers being wounded in Syria. In general, the US role in Syria, working with the SDF as a partner force, has been a phenomenal success against ISIS. The partnership began in 2015 and led to the defeat of ISIS in 2019.

However, ISIS continues to exist. In addition to their presence, there are also ISIS detainees in eastern Syria. And although ISIS is a constant threat to the US, one other major threat to the US-SDF partnership, as well as the general stability in eastern Syria has come from Turkey threatening to invade the area, as well as from Turkish drone strikes on SDF members.  

However, ISIS continues to be a threat and the US and SDF continue to carry out raids to make sure it can’t make a comeback. After this recent raid the US service members and the dog, which was working with the US forces, were brought to Iraq for treatment at a US medical facility.

In every conflict, there are going to be some casualties. However, the several hundred members of US forces are generally able to operate without suffering many casualties. There are other threats they face, such as Iranian drones and threats by Iranian-backed proxies. The Russians are also present as is the Syrian regime. This creates a very complex situation. However, the US has close partnerships with the SDF and the SDF have become very competent at controlling a swath of eastern Syria where ISIS once operated. 

It’s unclear if ISIS can regrow its tentacles. However, a massacre by ISIS members directed at Syrians this week shows how the brutal organization continues to be a threat. According to reports, Syrians had gone out to the desert near Suknah to gather desert truffles, and ISIS ambushed the civilians, murdering fifty people.

Suknah is near Palmyra, an important archaeological site. It is on the road to Deir Ezzor, which is on the Euphrates river. According to reports the massacre happened south of Suknah near the Doubayat gas field.  

Common threats faced in Syria

Last April there were concerns about ISIS increasing its threats in this area. According to one report, Russia, which backs the Syrian regime, was asked by Damascus for help because of the rising attacks. Russia today is fighting in Ukraine and it’s not clear how the Syrian regime can keep control of some rural areas.

The earthquake has harmed Aleppo and regime-controlled areas in the north. Iran operates along the Euphrates. In southern Syria, where ISIS once threatened Druze areas and held areas near the Golan, there are also security problems for the regime and there have been protests by the Druze. 

ISIS chooses weak and poor people as targets. According to the reports ISIS targeted people collecting desert truffles, killing 46 civilians and several soldiers. The report noted that back on February 12, ISIS also killed 11 and kidnapped 75 people who were also collecting truffles.  

The two attacks near Palmyra on people out collecting truffles will clearly send a message to Damascus about the insecurity in this important region. ISIS had once taken over the archaeological site of Palmyra, but the group was ejected from the area in March 2016.

Battles to remove the ISIS threat in this area continued through the spring of 2017. ISIS also laid siege to Deir Ezzor, a siege that was lifted by the Syrian regime in September 2017. By the fall of 2019 the border crossing to Iraq was reopened once ISIS was removed from this key area of Syria. ISIS was also defeated near the Golan in July 2018. However, ISIS today appears to be trying to show it is a threat again.