US seeks to deter Iranian proxy attacks in Syria
Over the last several years, Iran has increasingly sought to target US forces in Iraq, and now increasingly in Syria.
US airstrikes on Iranian proxies in Syria represent an attempt by the US to determine further attacks, pro Iranian militias, have been carrying out attacks over the last several years when US personnel or contractors have been injured the US has generally responded with airstrikes.
These airstrikes come after a US contractor was killed and five US service members in what is believed to be an Iranian-backed militia attack in eastern Syria. The attack comes in the wake of the visit to eastern Syria by top US general Mark Milley.Over the last several years, Iran has increasingly sought to target US forces in Iraq, and now increasingly in Syria. The reason around focuses on Syria is because it believes that the US commitment to Syria is weak.The Biden administration has sought to deter US attacks by carrying out retaliatory air strikes when US personnel or contractors are harmed. This is a policy that began under the Trump administration back in 2019.
In 2019, tensions between the US and Iran increased and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq carried out numerous attacks on facilities in Iraq, where US forces and contractors were located.When a contractor was killed in December 2019 this led to an increase in tensions and the US ended up targeting Iranian IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis in January 2020.
Iran's continued influence in Syria
Iranian-backed militia threats have increased in Syria in the last two years. These include drone attacks which are the weapon of choice for the Iranian-backed militias. Iran has also increasingly threatened Israel with drones since 2018 and also exported kamikaze drones to Russia.Syria began back in 2015 and although it is ostensibly to fight ISIS, it serves as a way to also project US influence.US influence helps balance Iranian threats. This is why Iran wants to use these types of attacks to harass the US. Although the militias use rockets and drones and are often ineffective in their attacks, when there are casualties the US has generally responded.Iran appears to order its militias to attack US forces every month or every other month to gauge the US response. Every year US contractors have been killed or wounded, including in August 2022 and March 2021 and also in 2019 and 2020.The attacks these days are mostly directed at US forces in Syria. As the Syrian regime normalized ties increasingly with countries in the region, including US partners in the Gulf there may be pressure on the US in Syria and Iran may sense an opportunity. This means that Iran may also sense an opportunity to act against Israel during Ramadan, to increase tensions in Syria. Israel has opposed Iranian entrenchment in Syria but as the targeting of US forces indicate, Iran will not stop its pressure campaign and will test US responses.
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