Iraqi militias may be preparing for attacks, US experts say

Iraqi militias began using “coded religious messages” soon after the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy has found. 

While the messages could be mere saber rattling, the Iranian-backed militias may be poised to act in solidarity with Hamas, the institute said in a report published Monday.

Titled “Coded Militia Language Aims to Signal Escalation,” the report said the “Iraqi ‘resistance’ is using language that previously presaged attacks on US targets, whether sincerely or as a supportive bluff amid the latest Hamas-Israel crisis.”

Sabereen News, a social media news bureau that caters to the Iraqi resistance, posted the messages. The site, which is believed to have close ties with the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard and Iraqi militias that identify with Iran's axis of resistance, posts messages in code to communicate developments in Iraq’s resistance movement. 

The Washington Institute report highlighted a post from Oct. 13 that said: “I saw muallemi [my teacher/mentor] holding the book of Allah and reading its verses. I didn’t interrupt him because he seemed like he had something great to present. Before I left, he said, 'Wait until tomorrow and the freemen's eyes will be happy.' My teacher is a man who doesn’t lie.”

According to the report, the statement posted to Sabereen News has been used to signal “imminent” violent attacks by Iraqi militias in the past. 

“It looks increasingly likely that Iran-backed militias in Iraq will take part in anti-Israel military operations out of Syria, as part of a Golan front. This could just be the maintenance of a threat to distract Israeli attention and resources, or it could be activated,” Michael Knights, a Washington Institute fellow who specializes in the military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states, told The Media Line. The institute's report was co-authored by Knights with the institute's Hamdi Malik and Crispin Smith.

The Biden Administration has made it clear that any organization looking to "take advantage" of the Israel-Hamas War should think twice before doing so. The administration has ordered two carrier strike groups and a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Mediterranean to persuade Iranian proxies to sit this war out. 

Iraqi militias have voiced violent intentions

"Our stand is clear. If the Americans intervene in the battle with Hamas, we will attack all US targets. Therefore, they need to stop the support for this Zionist entity," said Hadi al-Ameri, the head of the Badr Organization political party and paramilitary organization and one of Iraq’s most powerful politicians.

Al-Ameri has been a member of Iraq’s Council of Representatives since 2014. The United Arab Emirates classified al-Ameri’s Badr Organization as a terrorist organization that same year. In 2020, US Congressman Joe Wilson introduced a bill to designate the group a foreign terrorist organization. The bill did not pass. 

Iraqi militias would have to contend with the Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, the multinational military operation focused on missions against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria. A combat brigade from the US Army’s illustrious 10th Mountain Division recently started a deployment in Iraq as a member of the joint task force.

Experts do not believe the Iraqi militias are strong enough to make a difference in the Israel-Hamas war, should the militias decide to get involved in support of Hamas.

“The Iraqi militias are militarily very weak, so they would have little impact. In fact, they would take heavy losses, which would be a net positive for Iraq and reduce the challenge facing anti-militia resisters in Iraq in the future,” Knights said.

Iranian proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah have already started becoming involved in the war. Hezbollah has been attacking Israel’s northern border as Israel prepares a large-scale ground invasion into Gaza. The attacks come one week before the 40th anniversary of the 1983 Beirut US Marine Corps barracks bombings, an attack remembered as one of the single deadliest days in the Marine Corps’ history.