‘Nasrallah is holding his cards close to his chest’ - comment
An analysis of the Israel-Hamas war by leading strategic expert Ayelet Frish
Soldiers enclose around Gaza City, Houthis in Yemen claim to have launched drone attacks towards Israel, Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks out publicly on the War for the first time, Congress votes to censure Rashida Tlaib, and antisemitism runs rampant throughout major global cities as the war continues to dominate public discourse and headlines around the world, and that is just this week. Amidst the layered complexities surrounding Israel’s war against the Hamas, there is one unobjectionable truth – the global implications of the Israel-Hamas War permeate all levels of society and will leave a lasting impact throughout the Middle East and the rest of the world.
Ayelet Frish, CEO of Frish Strategic Consulting Ltd. and leading international strategic adviser, breaks down the events that have unfolded over the past week as Israel to continues its most crucial campaign for the future of the Jewish Nation.
Key Events from the Week
IDF troops completed the encirclement of Gaza City, the nucleus of the Hamas terror machine, and continue operating inside Gaza, engaging in complex, close-range, urban warfare. Israeli forces have eliminated thousands of terrorists thus far, including senior Hamas leaders behind the October 7th massacre.
The IDF continues to call on residents of Gaza City to evacuate to the south, opening humanitarian corridors for Gazan civilians who are marching to safety while waving white flags as IDF troops ensure their safe passage. Thousands of civilians marching with white flags is usually considered a victory photo for the other side. In this case however, this photo doesn’t represent victory or glory, but what it does show is the sad reality of the evil of Hamas against its own people.
Israel has deployed a large number of troops to its northern border with Lebanon and Syria, and is readily prepared to act against any terror threat on its northern front, with ground troops and the air force operating to deter future attacks.
Israeli Spirit
The trials and tribulations of the Jewish people have become ingrained in their culture and religion, but for Frish, the October 7th massacre ranks high as one of the most pivotal events in recent Jewish history. The need to explain the significant and horrific loss of life may sound redundant, but as the world continues to ignore the catalyst for the ongoing war, Frish feels that it is critical to understand that this event is a turning point for Israel. Following years of continued rocket fire, provocation, and endless rounds of military operations against the Hamas terrorist organization that has repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction, we are seeing an unprecedented unification of the Israeli people around the simple principle of the survival of a nation that has succumbed to hate, fear and systematic extermination for thousands of years.
Historically, Israel will concede to a ceasefire when they reach a point that will result in inevitable military casualties or a hostage situation. However, this point was already breached at the onset of the Israel-Hamas War and Israel now understands that the military and civil situation calls for an unprecedented shift in strategy to change this reality and return Israel’s deterrence and military strength. Frish directs her message clearly to Hamas, who are looking to a ceasefire as a means to rearm and regroup. “The nation is united, and we will hurt and cry for every fallen soldier. We will fight to bring every single hostage home, but we are determined to fight. Even though we are devastated to lose so many soldiers, the spirit of the people is different than anything we have ever seen.”
The Israeli people recognize that the fight in Gaza is a fight that are now willing to take on in order to ensure that Hamas and the threat of terror is eliminated. This is the first time that there is no debate about the need for boots on the ground in order to win this war. Israel can only move forward if we wipe out the extremist Iranian proxies of Hamas and Hezbollah at its source.
“I do not recognize any weakness or concession on the part of the Israeli people,” Frish states confidently, “I only see the immense strength and the resolve of the families of the fallen soldiers are giving to more soldiers to fight for Israel’s existence.”
It’s that spirit that should frighten Israel’s enemies. Rather than deal a devastating blow to Israel’s fervor through the demonstration of their commitment terror, the actions of Hamas, Iran and other terrorist organizations have only emboldened the Jewish nation, seen through unprecedented military recruitment, social action and cohesion of a country that was battling civil unrest just a few months ago.
It is a fundamental part of Israel’s DNA to protect all its citizens, and in that vein, Israel’s military and intelligence forces are determined to rescue the more than 230 hostages that Hamas is utilizing as its insurance policy for its survival. “The terrorists think that they can kidnap our babies, toddlers, children, women and elderly and use them as human shields while cowering in their terror tunnels underneath schools and hospitals, and that this strategy will protect them from Israel,” Frish asserts, noting that they continue to use their own civilian population as cover above ground, highlighting the stark contrast of how each side values the lives of its people, “If the Iranian ISIS [Hamas] thinks that they can exploit Israel’s adherence to the preservation of life as a weakness, they need to know that they will still die like dogs in those tunnels.”
Israel’s number one priority is the safe return of its citizens and foreign nationals abducted by the terror organization, and its elite intelligence and special tactical teams are committed to the complete extermination of the Hamas terrorist threat so that the massacre of October 7th will never happen again. Frish explains that the Shin Bet has recommissioned the NILI arm, a special clandestine national security unit committed to the elimination of the terrorist leaders involved in deaths of the 1,400 Israelis murdered on October 7th. To the barbaric terrorists who perpetrated such heinous atrocities and to their proponents who think they can mistake the crisis in Israel as an opportunity to strike, Israel warns, “There is nowhere you will be able to hide.”
The Threat in the North
Inspired by the perceived victory of the Iranian enabled Hamas on October 7th, Frish has no doubt that the war will extend to Israel’s northern border, and we will have no choice but to deal with the imminent threat of Hezbollah. The lackluster speech of Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah has garnered jokes from both sides of the Iranian axis, but Frish is not interested in the commentary. “I believe that Nasrallah is holding his cards close to his chest. The number of ballistic and guided missiles that Hezbollah has are greater than you can imagine,” Frish notes that the missiles are primed and not just targeted at the northern villages but have the capability of unleashing unforeseen destruction on the Israel major urban centers of Tel Aviv and Haifa with precision accuracy and more destructive capabilities.
“After October 7th, there is no Israeli leader that can stand behind the strategy of containment, living from round to round [of attacks]. Even if it doesn’t happen in the coming weeks, in the ongoing timeline of the State of Israel, there will need to be a major incursion on the northern front against Hezbollah.” Nasrallah may not have said much of anything concrete in his hour-long speech, but he has demonstrated that Israel’s enemies are fearful, and in Frish’s opinion, they should be.
The notion of safety and security in Israel has been shattered, and Israel now understands that the unconscionable massacre empowered by Iranian support and more frighteningly, dangerous terrorist ideology, can happen again. Highlighting the renewed spirit and resolve of the Jewish people, Frish adds that “there is no mother in the northern communities of Misgav Am, Metula or Kiryat Shmona after October 7th that can put their children to sleep knowing the enemy in the north shares the same goal. On October 7th we understood the clear picture. Hezbollah, like Hamas, is planning and laying the groundwork, not just to fire massive missile attacks against Israel, provided by the Iran, but to spread terror and fear within Israeli villages.”
In 2018, Israel uncovered a web of tunnels on its northern border with Lebanon, cross-border tunnels which were constructed by Hezbollah in order to infiltrate Israel from Lebanon. Israeli intelligence and military forces unveiled plans by Hezbollah to enter Israel and attack Israeli towns and villages by surprise, just as Hamas did on October 7.
We have seen the evil unleashed in the South, the extent of which we could have never imagined, and this is the exact same agenda of Hezbollah, perpetuated by the Iranian axis and influence, spread throughout its proxies in the Mideast, and continues to inspire radicalism.
Since Operation Protective Edge, Iran has bolstered its support of its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, sharing military technology, resources and assisting in the rapid establishment of factories that manufacture weapons of mass destruction, with the ultimate goal of the annihilation of Israel, even at the cost of their own humanity and civilians’ lives. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed new images this week from Southern Lebanon, clearly identifying an Iranian airstrip used to bolster Hezbollah’s terrorist capabilities. The world knows that Iran has been escalating its nuclear capabilities, and advancing its exportation of terrorism through its axis, and Frish reaffirms the growing accessibility of the greatest danger to Israel- the enablement of an Iranian nuclear threat.
Frish bluntly states the end goal of this radicalism ideology, “All day and all night, Iran only wants to spread global terror, kill all the Jews and destroy Israel. We cannot fool ourselves into thinking this is an issue of terrorism. This is religious extremism.”
While Israel should not instigate a two front war until it has eradicated the cancerous Hamas threat in Gaza, the world should prepare for the inevitable necessity of the impending war in the north. For those that support the globalization of terrorism and ideals spread by Iran, Frish reaffirms that they should be scared. The rest of the Arab world may not outwardly support Israel’s actions, but Frish believes that the eradication of dangerous radicalism primarily focused on creating weapons of mass destruction will be quietly appreciated, by millions of Arabs who are partners for peaceful resolution.
College Campuses
Even with indisputable, empirical evidence to support the response of the Israeli government and military forces, the rhetoric that echoes throughout college campuses and the legislative halls is becoming increasingly dangerous. “We are seeing a large percentage of young people, 18-25, in the United States who are very active on social media and getting their information from ‘fake news,’ standing on the side of Hamas and fervently against Israel,” Frish explains, shocked by the rising trend that has allied educated American liberals on the side of terrorism.
The trajectory is growing more dangerous each day, and the responsibility to correct this should not fall squarely on the shoulders of Israel and its supporters, but on the members of congress who claim to be on the side of freedom, on the college professors who are impressing their own beliefs on their students, and on the university presidents and leadership, who are standing idly by as their campuses continue to spread rampant antisemitism. “I feel deep shame for them for allowing racism, antisemitism and allowing their students to praise the [barbaric] actions of Hamas, who burn and behead babies,” Frish expresses, hoping that these educators will answer the call to correct the mounting hatred, but adds, “It’s not too late. Today it is in Israel, but tomorrow it will be in Boston, in your playgrounds. Wake up!”