Middle East shifts focus to Houthi threats in Red Sea - analysis

The US has announced a new initiative to provide security for the Red Sea, and countries in the region are now watching this initiative to see what may come next.

“This is an international challenge that demands collective action,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in Bahrain where the US Fifth Fleet is based.

Austin announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, “an important new multinational security initiative,” on Monday.

While some forty countries could have joined the new initiative, the US has been able to secure commitments from key partners such as the UK, Canada, and France, as well as Bahrain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain.

France, the UK, and the US already have warships in the Red Sea or nearby, and they have seen action to prevent Houthi attacks. It is not clear if the other countries will send ships, but they can support the initiative in other ways.

An Associated Press report noted that “several other countries have also agreed to be involved in the operation but prefer not to be publicly named, a defense official said on the condition of anonymity, to discuss additional details of the new mission that have not been publicly announced.”

This hints at countries that want to help but don’t want to do it publicly because controversy might develop. Countries bordering the Red Sea, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel, have not announced involvement.

Reports indicate Saudi Arabia has opposed escalation, even as the Houthis increase attacks. Other reports suggested the UAE was more keen on a stronger approach. Egypt has just had a presidential election securing Abdel Fattah al-Sisi another term. It may be wary of involvement but it stands to lose out on Suez Canal revenues if shipping companies stop transiting via the Red Sea.

Reports say there are some 400 ships in the Red Sea region. Around 20,000 transit this key area every year, meaning some 60 are transiting every day. However, now many companies are considering pausing operations.

Regional media, many connected to states in the region, means their views represent concerns of various governments. Arab News notes that “Italian-Swiss giant Mediterranean Shipping Company, France’s CMA CGM, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd, Belgium’s Euronav and Denmark’s A.P Moller-Maersk  – the latter accounting for 15% of global container freight – have all stopped using the Red Sea until further notice.”

Iran continues to inflame the region 

The National in the UAE included an article noting that Iran is gaining from the conflict in Gaza. The Houthi threats are one way Iran has gained influence in the region. Al-Ain media had an article about a ship thwarting a piracy attempt.

Meanwhile, Iranian media linked to the regime continued to try to inflame the region. An Iranian leader linked to the IRGC said the war in Gaza is one between “right and wrong.” Clearly, he thinks Hamas is the “right” part. Iran also highlighted new weapons for its helicopter fleet on Tuesday.

The question in the Red Sea will now be whether the new US-backed initiative can bring results and security. If the Houthis are seen to be able to get around the new initiative and continue to harass ships or blockade the Red Sea, it will be seen as a setback for the West.

Many of the countries involved are Western, which is an important step to guarantee freedom of navigation of the seas. China, which has emerging ties with many countries in the region via groupings such as the SCO BRICS, is not helping secure the Red Sea.

This shows Beijing may think that the Houthi threats could erode US influence in the region and be a net gain for China. Instability may also help China’s claims in the South China Sea. China has used global instability to try to create a new world order to its benefit.

China, which has emerging ties with many countries in the region via groupings such as the SCO, BRICS, and various new work in the Gulf, is not helping secure the Red Sea. This shows Beijing may think that the Houthi threats could erode US influence in the region and be a net gain for China. Also, instability may help China in its claims in the South China Sea. China has used global instability to try to create a new world order that would benefit it.

Other countries, such as Russia, Iran, and Turkey, also benefit. Qatar, which hosts Hamas, has also not signed on to help security in the Red Sea. These are symbols of the challenge ahead.